MELANIA FILES FOR DIVORCE

   Reuters has reported :

 " It is reported that Melania Trump has hired  Manhattan divorce lawyer Kenneth Burrows to act for her in divorce proceedings from  the President of the United States.Filings indicate that Burrows  will pursue the annulment of the couples 2005 pre nuptial contract and sole custody of her son Barron.Updates to follow"

Cyclops did not expect this;at least not yet.

TRUMFSKI PRE-NUP

As you know Cyclops does not indulge in salacious or intrusive gossip.

As amused as most at the personal shenanigans of Trumpfski himself. 

Particularly impressed by the extent that these reveal Evangelical hypocrisy.

Their Bigotry always seems to Trumpf their judgemental Christianity.

Wife[s] and kids should be out of bounds unless she/he [JAVANKA👫] has chosen to be players in her/his own right.

Or if the relationship is relevant to policy, politics or corruption. 

Trumpfski’s “adult “kids have made themselves fair game. 👮                                                                                                                             

                                                         

 By and large the media has given space to wife Melania and especially to son Barron.

Sure Cyclops has made fun of the 1st Ladie's campaign on cyber bullying [she is against !]

 Made note of her interesting visa/immigration background in the context of Trumpfski's anti immigrant Jihad 

And it is true that there have been legitimate reasons to post pictures of Melania plying her previous trade.

But today:

 24/7 cable,the blogasphere and Cyclops’ in tray is ablaze with speculation on the Trumpfski pre-nup.

What is going on?

What do they know that the Cyclops intelligence network [not yet expelled from Moscow] does not?

Is there more to Melania's silence than meets the ear?

Has she,as some in the blogasphere claim,moved out of the White House ?

When we know and if its relevant to policy, politics or corruption[Ed: enough already,cut the “above it all’ sanctimonious BS] then so will you.

ANTE CLIMAX

                                                      Anti Climax
              [Ed:I applaud Cyclop's restraint in not making a juvenile double entendre on Ante or Climax]

Many of last night's viewers would have been disappointed.
Strormy's lawyer had already trailed the content and over hyped the interview.
Nevertheless,it is astonishing the extent to which we have become inured to the disgusting Trumpski Circus.
Rather like the ho hum response to Corbyn's antisemitism.
Or the so far footling response to Putin's assassinations and adventurism.

For many the sex stuff  amuses,titillates or shocks
Cyclops does give a small  toss[of his hair] about the elderly Presidents boorish,deluded sexual fantasies.
Oh what joy on earth it could have been if Berlusconi was still Italian Prime Minister,Pigs Head Cameron British PM and Straus Kahn had become President de France ;and the leaders of Western Democracy could have met at Mar a Lago for a Bunga Bunga  Summit.

The corruption,policy madness and narcissism adjacent to the button is however serious.
Welcome to the WH John [preemptive] Bolton.
Even the famously non judgmental Cyclops is worried.

As to the Interview itself. It confirmed much that was already known

1.She is credible.
2.She was threatened to keep her silence by a thug in a parking lot.
3.She was poorly served by her show biz lawyer.
4.She was bullied by Trumpski enforcer Michael Cohen
5. Cohen does not have a credible reason for making a personal,secret,$130,000 payment to Stormy a week before the Presidential election.
6. Trumpff is a pig.
7. Ivanka needs a chaperone when seeing dad
8. Melania needs a friend

But something we did NOT know
                 She Claims it was only a One Night Stand
After which, despite

•  Multiple approaches 
• Trumpfski's hot pursuit,
•  Blandishments of an appearance on "The Apprentice"  and 
•  Business Opportunities,

She avoided repeating the experience.

Why?   

•            not because he had small hands
•            not because of his hair
•            not because he was 61 and she 27
•            not because he was married
•            not because he creepily kept comparing her to his daughter
•            not because she was in a monogamous long term relationship
•            not because she was washing her hair

  But because after the first night she thought it wasn't worth it.

                          That revelation mes braves is driving The Donald crazy😡

PUTIN WINNING ?

TRUMP congratulates PUTINelection win,'we will probably get together'soon-cnbc              [ed:  Ed:probably to finalise that President for life stuff suggested by Xi et al]          

• Jeremy Corbyn says Putin should be handed sample of novichok poison and give his verdict on where it came from---the SUN
•   Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s World At One program, Corbyn sa"I asked the Russians be given a sample so that they can say categorically one way or the other."     Radio 4
•  U.K. Labour Leader’s Stance on Russian Ex-Spy’s Poisoning Splits Party  NYtimes
• Labour MPs said they were “furious”, “bloody fuming” and “in a deep depression” after Jeremy Corbyn questioned UK government’s decision to blame Russia for nerve agent attack....  rumours were swirling that multiple MPs would resign from the opposition party’s front benches....Jeremy has "diminished his position on a warped anti-western ideology,” a shadow minister said....another called the leader “morally spineless” in the face of an act of terror on British soil.                                                            Financial Times
• Labour  MPs who criticise Jeremy on Russia"are enemies" who "should be deselected"                                                         -Corbyn ally Chris Williamson
• 
  

Theresa May has not yet taken any meaningful action against Russian Oligarchs in Londonagrad.

Abromovich still owns Chelses FC.

Zero oligarch accounts frozen--including those of Deripaska,Usmanov et al who are known to have laundered money for Putin himself.

Raucous celebrations of Putin's election victory ran well into the night at the homes of Russians in Mayfair,Knightsbridge and on millionaires Row in Highgate .

                                                     

                                                     Not in Salisbury

Russian Assassins

HRH was preparing a post on Stormy Daniels.     "Stormy in a Double T Cup"-geddit?
But its been almost impossible to keep up.
This morning on the 'Morning Joe "show, her lawyer dropped a new bombshell

MICHA BREZINSKI:   Was your client Physically threatened ?
STORMY LAWYER :   YES

Cyclops finds it difficult to believe that there is anyone on the posting list who is not following this mishigas blow by blow.No vulgarity intended.
No doubt the vaunted Stormy "60 Minutes" interview will broadcast to a Superbowl sized audience and be  downloaded from You Tube millions of time from  Hangchow, Ulan Batur,Vladivostok,Timbuktu and Stettin in the Baltics.

So we may return to this subject of consummate importance but first below is a SERIOUS posting on
                                Russian Assassinations in the UK.


                              This is Serious Stuff.

The outrage in Salisbury England is the latest in a series of suspected murders/attempted murders  ordered by Putin in the the land of Cyclops birth.
The UK government -of both parties -has responded to these very weakly
Preferring to look the other way while Inquests returned "open" verdicts  on indeterminate deaths .

 You can hear the conversations at Whites in Pall Mall

• "So what if the Russians are bumping off some of their own" .
• "Most were probably unsavoury characters anyway".
• "Many were bloody Cosmopolitans or do we call them Globalists these days?"
• "Can't put all those legal and investment banking fees at risk old chap--my cousin works for several of these Oligarch chappies;and very generous fees they are too"
• "Would not want to lose our standing in the money laundering league--its the only one the UK tops--chortle,chortle"
• "Anyway if the Yanks don't care why should we?"

Salisbury has crossed a line.

• Unlike Berozovski,Litvinenko,Kara-Murza,Perepilichny in the UK and 
• Others poisoned outside of the UK
• The two Russians were British Citizens.
• Colonel Sergei Skripal was in England as a result of an explicit spy swap agreement.
• He and his family were under the direct protection of the British Secret Services
• There was collateral damage --a British Bobby hospitalised and
• 200 passers needed to be by checked by medical authorities.

The Russian response response to British outrage in parliament and in the media was to ridicule

the British establishments and the toothless security services.This was characterised by Prime Minister Theresa May in Parliament on Wednesday "the Russian reaction to the use of a nerve agent on British soil had been sarcasm, contempt, and defiance” 

So what is going on ? Why did Putin order this murder attempt?  Why now?

• First it should be noted that the nerve agent used is a very rare and powerful  poison
• That apparently only the Russian state possesses 
• This could not be accidental.
• Putin wants the world to know that he ordered the murders .
• Pour encouregez les autres
• It sends a very clear message to Russian dissidents and 
• To those inside their system who are spying or may choose to spy for the West.

  The theory that the timing is linked to the current Russian Presidential election seems implausible.

  That has already been fixed.

• More likely it is a part of a continuing programme eliminating Putin's enemies and opponents
• He is after all a psychopath following in a great Russian tradition
• A man unafraid to visit death upon enemies living in London,Paris,New York or Mexico City.
• Stalin must be proud.
• It also serves to reinforce the loyalty of the billionaire oligarchs who fawn on him
• They are reminded that their wealth--and health--derive from the man in the Kremlin.
• Most importantly perhaps,it serves to deflect the attention of the Russian people from their dire economic straits and the diminished standing of Russia in world affairs.
• This last obsesses Putin,and drives policy from Crimea to Syria and the Stans 
• and to interfering in democratic elections.
• Please note the parading and boasting of "enhanced " nuclear weaponry.
• Widely debunked by those of us who know the reality.

                                 Why Now?                                       Why Not?

Past outrages have dissipated into the sands of callous,venal  self interest.

Why would this be any different?

If the oligarchs keep the money flowing the UK will turn a blind eye to this too.

Its all part of the programme.
The assassination squads are part of a bureaucracy and they have their annual quotas to fulfill.

               But this time the outrage may have caught Putin's crew by surprise.

Why are the Brits so exercised by the attempted murder of one tubby colonel and his daughter?

One explanation is that it is simply the last straw.
The UK establishment has finally rediscovered some modicum of decency and courage.
Poisoning a UK citizen in the English shires is simply not on for a once great power.
Last night at the proms,Rule Britannia,Land of Hope and Glory  and "Britons shall be Free"

Cyclops is really quite old.
Yet hope springs eternal for the land of his birth and the refuge for his holocaust surviving parents.
The Mother of Parliaments and of Representative Democracy.
No England.No cyclops.Lest  we Forget.
So HRH chooses not to rule out that the UK reaction is based on PRINCIPLE.

But in addition : two further explanations

 I] Theresa May has been presented with her Falklands and
      even she is not so stupid to miss the opportunity.
 2] There is even more to this than meets the eye.

Lets look at the second first

                                                First #2

 When the incident occurred the UK Government response was ritual outrage,a declaration of Russian culpability and a call on its NATO allies for solidarity.

The US State Department response from REX[the oil king] TILLERSON was to accept the BRITISH accusation and to condemn  RUSSIA.
TRUMPSKI's White House demurred.
TILLERSON  was fired the next day.
Just a coincidence.

In FRANCE,MACRON hedged.Sought "more evidence".
A blatant manoevering for advantage of some kind over Les Anglais.
So jejeune!

GERMANY'S,MERKEL was immediately in support of the British response.
The German's have the best intelligence network in the Kremlin,
Followed by Mossad,who are staying out of this one.

In the UK itself all parties supported the Prime Minister
Except for comrades CORBYN and MILNE.
His front and back benches were furious.
Devastated by this umpteenth "last straw".
More on the intra UK farrago anon.


Within a day of this luke warm support from her allies
The big four USA,UK,GERMANY and FRANCE were fully on board.
Theresa May's office privately  briefing the media on her diplomatic prowess and
tough stance with the allies.

Much more likely,the US and FRANCE were briefed by British and German intelligence
on reality and on future SOVIET  RUSSIAN intentions.
France's DGSE forcefully educated young Macon.
The CIA did the same with TRUMPSKI

As of today NATO and the big four are speaking with one voice.
Putin is wondering whether he has over played his hand.
Beneath the expected bluster,expect a recalibration.

There is more to this than meets the eye.
If  CYCLOPS posted any more it would be necessary to contemplate regicide.
           
                                                    WHAT OF #1

"Theresa May has been presented with her Falklands and even she is not so stupid to miss the opportunity."

Even as HRH writes that sentence ........

Given her history CYCLOPS must be wary of  predicting any political nous to Muddling May but can she miss such an open goal?

She has been delivered an unsolicited "FALKLANDS"

It is forgotten that in 1982 before the idiot Argentine Generals invaded that benighted far off  British sheep territory--for reasons not dissimilar to Putin's, i.e. to distract from domestic failure--Thatcher's approval ratings were in low 30s% and rocketed to over 50% once the British Armada sailed.
She then won the the 1983 election over  a Michael Foot led Labour Party by 15% points.

• Going into this "crisis " May's Tories  lead Corbyn's Labour 42-39%.
• Corbyn's response has caused total dismay in his parliamentary party as he yet again finds it impossible to condemn the Kremlin Killer.
• Watch May's poll lead widen---depending on how she plays a now winning hand.

HRH CYCLOPS is not impressed with her early early response:lots of  blah blah and the expulsion of a couple of dozen spies.

• This has proved initially popular with the UK media,parliament and people.
• But it is  hardly likely to have the Kremlin shaking the snow off its boots.

Assuming UK not prepared for tit for tat poisoning in Moscow

• Then the test must be the action taken against the direct financial interests of Putin and friends.
• There are dozens of rich Russians who have laundered fortunes into the UK
• Thousands of expensive homes are owned by shell companies fronting for these crooks.
• A dozen billionaire friends of Putin have salted away fortunes in the UK ,the British Virgin Islands and Guernsey .
• Their families live primarily in London
• The yachts are kept in Monte Carlo
•  Roman Abromovich owns Chelsea.  
•   Alisher Usmanov owns 30% of Arsenal.

                    Where did the all this  money come from?

• Both  Abromovich and Usmanov are personal "friends" of Putin.
• Both are reported to have diverted billions into Putin's personal accounts.
• They thrive.
• Putin's Oligarch enemies not so much.
• Boris Berezovsky,originally Abromovich's mentor, found hanged at wife's home in Berkshire,England.
• His friend  Nikolai Glushkov was found murdered in London this week.
• In absentia, Glushkov was sentenced last year by a Putin court to 8 years .
• He had already served 5 years from 1999-2004 on other charges. 
• Michaele Khodorovsky once the richest man in Russias crossed Putin.
• Eighteenth on Forbes rich list, he served over a decade in Russian prisons on "tax" charges.
• He settled in London but has abandoned England for secret exile in Switzerland.
• No longer a billionaire.

All of these men are are/were crooks  but some thrive ,some die.
Some prefer to live in "Switzerland" because England is not safe from Putin's assassins


So what is stopping May's Government from freezing and then confiscating the assets of Putins  money men?

Nothing except the will.

• Sure BP may lose its 20% stake in Rosneft-
• High risk ventures are high risk ventures.
• Ask Tillerson's Exxon how his signature,legacy deal with Rosneft is doing.
• It was cancelled two weeks ago.
• Exxon revenue loss about $150 billion.
• As Cyclops has noted "any fool can run Exxon".
• Those fees Tory lawyers,bankers,fixers and sundry relatives of grandees earned from Usmanov et al. ?
• Nice while it lasted.
• Party is over.
• It is inconceivable that even the British security services do not have ample dossiers of evidence that shows these assets were acquired with ill gotten,laundered money under the protection of Putin.

Mrs. Thatcher responded to General Viola's invasion of the Falklands by sending the fleet.
She ignored the whining of those with business interests in Argentina--UK second largest foreign investor.
She shrugged of the concerns of British[and US] lenders to Argentina and Argentine companies.
She may or may not have been wise to respond in this way.

But she acted decisively and reaped the political benefits

                   Will May have the same political courage?

If so:
She will seize Oligarch assets,returns Chelsea to a "fit and proper person",expel Russian crooks from the UK and expose Putin's machismo preening.
Corbyn will become a smaller footnote in Britsh  electoral history than Michael Foot.
At least Foot read--and wrote--books for himself.

If not:
 May will get several chapters on how not to be a politician in a proud democracy

  

STEEL TARIFFS

                                                         STEEL TARIFFS SET AT 25%

                                                                           2017

Steel Imports

• 28 EU nations make up nearly 20 percent of U.S. steel imports or 
• 7 billion tonnes i.e. roughly $ 7 billion of EU steel imports into the USA
• Germany is largest source at 3 % of US steel imports ≤one million tonnes 
• with dollar value ≤ $1 billion

US Exports

• EU countries, together, rank 1st as an EXPORT market for the United States
• Manufactured goods EXPORTS from USA to EU approx. $280 billion 
• i.e. Steel imports=2½% of manufactured exports   
• Aircraft ($38.5 billion), Machinery ($29.4 billion)

Just for fun: 

                   25% steel tariff adds $1.7 billion to USA tax revenues

                     1% tariff on US Mnfr. Goods exports to EU adds $2.8 billion to EU tax receipts!

• The EU imports Aircraft ($38.5 billion), Machinery ($29.4 billion).This last does NOT include Harley Davidson which is in “consumer goods” category.
• A  2.5% tariff just on these two sectors [one tenth of the 25% USA steel tariff] would generate about $1.7 billion –note the symmetry please.
• Listen to the cheering in Toulouse, Bristol and Munich at the prospects for the next round in Trumpski’s trade war
• The groans are from Seattle
• A mere 5% tariff on Aircraft, parts etc should generate in excess of $2 billion for the EU or significantly reduce Boeing sales to EU airline fleets.
• A 15% tariff should finish off all US Aircraft exports to EU.

Choose your own manufacturing sector. The arithmetic is inexorable.

Now a tale of One Company.The one the EU intends to use to retaliate for Trumpski’s latest idiocy.

HARLEY DAVIDSON is Head Quartered in Paul Ryan’s Wisconsin Congressional district.

House Speaker Paul Ryan broke with President Donald Trump over his decision to impose tariffs on imported aluminum and steel products, setting the stage for a high-profile policy fight between Republican leaders and the White House-WSJ 5March 2017

·    Harley's 2017 bike sales fell for fourth year in a row.Revenues dropped to $4.92 billion.

·  Profits: Net income $500 mm. EBITDA $1.1 billion

·   Current Share Price $ 44.16. Range 52 weeks $43.48 - 63.40

·   Operating margin fell 8 points to 2 percent in the third quarter; 9% over the year.

·   Debt to equity ratio    4x

·   Margins on exports to Europe would be the highest the company earns.

·   Harley-Davidson announced closure of assembly plant in Kansas City and merge operations into its plant in York, Pa

· Harley shipped 241,498 motorcycles globally, 38,000 to Europe.

· That is 16% of shipments are to the EU.

· In the US the cheapest HOG sells for $10K the most expensive north of $20K

· In Europe they sell for between $14-30,000

 They have serious competition from Japanese producers Suzuki, Honda and Kawasaki, and the Italian Ducati. Price competition is fierce. 

• Assuming an average price of $20,000, then EU Exports are worth $760 million. 
• Similarly 16% of $4.9 billion global sales is roughly $780 million.
•  A 25% tariff would raise Harley prices in EU by $5,000/bike.
• Making the heroic assumption that this did not destroy the HOG market –
• A 25% tariff absorbed by Harley would cost it a little under $200 million, 
• about 40% of 2017 profits. 
• And 20% of its net cash flow. 

Manufacturer with a 4:1 debt ratio suddenly losing some combination of 10-15% of sales or 40% of its net revenues will likely be devastated...

p.s. HRH forgot:

•  Most of the material in Harleys is steel.
•  Assuming that about 40% of the Harley sales price is accounted for by steel cost and that the 25% tariff is passed on to HD
• Then the margin per bike is reduced by 10% percentage points.
• Wiping out the HD profit for each unit.
• This will no doubt made up by increased volume at a higher price 😖??
• Or by increased European sales---😰oops.