Thursday, November 30, 2017
Dateline London
There is little point in belabouring the pigs ear the Cons are making of "negotiating" the EU exit.
It may be the least competent international negotiations since Carthage sued for peace with Rome.
[Ed:whats this Carthage thing?Never heard of them. Cyclops:Exactly]
Every single position or "line in the sand" they have staked/drawn/posited has been abandoned.
The latest being the size of the divorce payment ;now watch on the "timing" of discussions on the Irish border.
The economic disaster that is Brexit is now plain for all to see.It is much more serious than even King Cyclops thought at the time of the referendum.
The EU negotiators are so concerned that they are desperately scrabbling around for bones to throw Mat et al.
After all they need somebody there with whom to "negotiate".
The leave campaign promises of NHS payment bonus from leaving and the ease and worth of multiple new trade agreements were always bogus.
It is not clear what proportion of the leave voters took them seriously--though even a couple of % would change the result.
The only legitimate question was[ and is] " How much economic negative was it worth for the return to the UK of sovereignty it had yielded to the EU"
And specifically in the rhetoric a "return of sovereignty to British Parliament"
The irony of a one time plebiscite result being deemed to override the "will of parliament " was not lost on this one eyed King or others who honour the example of the British form of representative democracy.
Given the attitude to the role of Parliamentary oversight and primacy shown by the leaders of "leave",Brexit means Brexit May and the Executive [Government] such rhetoric appears a wicked deception.
Of course there is a democratic deficit in the EU but so has there proved to be back home.
The EU needs major reforms but so do UK political institutions.
As the King feared the decision to leave has completely negated any UK influence on the future of democracy and stability in Europe.Without any compensatory gain elsewhere in the world or indeed in the UK.
Can anybody make a serious argument that the sovereignty gains outweigh the expected economic losses?
As for the real issue on which Farage campaigned and a large portion of leavers voted--IMMIGRATION--Pace MERKEL RIP,the consensus now in the EU matches UKIP's thrust or worse.
The EU needs the Brits there on the issue to urge moderation!
The only silver lining this old republican [in the Irish and literal sense] has enjoyed is the Republic of Ireland calling the Tory/Unionist bluff on the borders.They really did believe that Irish interests,views and concerns did not matter.Ever thus for the Tory Establishment.
In any event the Uk will change its mind;legitimize the about turn either through another referendum
[one man ,one vote ,one time is truly Stalinist----this Jezza and the boys understand] or through a series of parliamentary votes or a crisis election.
The FAT LADY will never sing.
In the meantime we are living through the most incompetent UK government since the Corn Laws
Perhaps the worst ever--at least until the next one.
The only real question is whether the UK can abandon Brexit in time to be in the EU before it all collapses.
Monday, November 13, 2017
Saudi Corruption Purge
I'll keep this very. I could barely type the subject line for being convulsed in Laughter
Editorials in the London Times greeted the putsch as though the boy wonder Mohammad bin Salman had ushered in the enlightenment and good governance.Or at least he was bringing the Kingdom into the 18th Century.
"Under his influence, Saudi society is being dragged into the 20th century ...with reforms including permitting women to drive, curbing the powers of the religious police, privatisation and championing the country’s young people." "MBS’s desire to bring about reform should be applauded"
Times "Reporting" claimed that the majority of the middle class and young people "clearly" supported bin Salman's moves.
King Cyclops is very impressed that a western journalist writing in London knows this.He must have special access to the Gallup Riyadh Weekly Polling .
Of course this is in the same report that thought this was a picture of the accommodations for the arrested Princes and Billionaires incarcerated in the Ritz Carlton .
It seems they "took to the mattresses".
A less credulous reporter might have questioned how such a photo was"smuggled out" and made available to the world's press.Such pictures are not typically in the press kit of for coup d'etats.
In any event it transpires that the Princes et al are in fact in the Ritz Carlton suites and the mattresses are for their servants.
It seems they do these things differently in Saudi.Most world leaders kept their own counsel; Trumpski was straight in :
“I have great confidence in King Salman and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, they know exactly what they are doing,” adding: “Some of those they are harshly treating have been ‘milking’ their country for years.”
No notion of secret Saudi funding of the Islamic Caliphate;
Saudi funded Wahabi indoctrination in Pakistan,Iraq and Afghanistan
Deliberate bombing of Yemeni Civilians
The disappearance of several Princely rivals in Bin Salman's generation
The house arrest in Riyadh of the Lebanese prime minister.
Let alone of the advice of his state department and the
pleading of a host of Arab journalists,academics and human rights activists.
At least from those not in Saudi funded think tanks and western universities
Donald and 'the base" may want to keep Muslims out of the USA but Trumpski and his Prince- Jared, have no problem hanging out with the Saudi Royals-- all they need to do do is bail out the Kushner real estate disaster in New York.
So Rupert Murdoch [owner of the London times and Wall Street Journal]and Donald Trumpski are very supportive of the anti corruption purge.Well it cannot be argued that these two billionaires[well one billionaire and a president] are not very knowledgeable about corruption.
There is no question that Saudi is corruption rife.Its the family business.It is not possible that the good Prince and his dad have not been major beneficiaries.
In October 2016 the Prince announced a freeze on civil service salaries and acut back on Princely stipends.The same week he noticed a yacht in Monte Carlo harbour .
"Saudi prince Mohammed bin Salman 'buys £452m yacht' but slashes public spending"
The prince was 31 and obviously saved his pennies from government service very wisely.
Readers will be very
familiar with the role anti corruption purges,campaigns and rhetoric have with
the consolidation of power by autocrats of left and right
It would appear that
bin Salman is to Corruption Reform as
Vlad Putin is to Corruption Reform
Xi Jinping is to Corruption Reform
Erdogan is to Corruption Reform
Jacob Zuma is to Corruption Reform
Bob Mugabe ...........
Nazarbayev ............
and ever thus
What about President Trumpski? Heaven for fend!
You must be confusing him with "Crooked Hillary"
So will this coup by young Ivanhoe be successful and transform Saudi Arabia and thence the entire Middle East?
His track record :
- In July 2014 against the advice of his oil minister and the Aramco technocrats he insisted on expanding oil production in order reduce prices to "starve" Persia and break the US fracking industry.
- This caused Saudi Arabia to lose its Mystical control of OPEC ;has decimated its budget and caused a forty percent drain on its monetary reserves.
- In 2015 as minister for defence he launched a war on neighbouring Yemen claiming that the Shia Houthi tribe was harbouring terrorists.
- Saudi Arabia has the 4th largest military budget in the world That is not a typo.
- Despite that it has been unable to defeat the impoverished Yemenis.
- Salman is now indiscriminately bombing civilians and has imposed a food and medicine blockade intended to starve the population
- This has caused a rift with the US military.The ultimate guarantor of Saudi sovereignty.
- As minister of the economy he had Mc Kinsey[anything for a buck]Consultants draw up plans to "Transform the Saudi Economy" away from oil by 2030.
- This plan was greeted by Hosannas by many pundits and the usual crowd of investment bankers.
- Saudi GDP is 40% oil production.Think tourism and light industry is going to transplant crude oil production in a little over a decade.?For perspective the great financial implosion was a decade ago.The world is still dealing with the fallout and EU GDP has not yet reached 2007 levels.
- At a conference in Riyadh the week before the coup the Saudis and their advisers were "adjusting" their projections "quite significantly".
- At the same time,2016,the good prince announced his decision to "float" 5 % of Aramco on the world's stock exchanges.The money was to be used to fund a new one hundred billion dollar sovereign wealth fund;and the Vision 2030 thing and apparently 2 new cities in the desert.
- He was of course encouraged in this "floating" notion by sundry investment banks and corporate law firms based in London and New York.This was because of their enlightened view of the future of the Saudi middle class not because they were seen drooling at the prospect of mammoth fees.
- The Prince claimed that Aramco was worth two trillion dollars.So five percent would be a hundred billion.
- The preparation for this IPO is not going well.While both New York and London Stock exchanges seemed eager to get the listing .Reality seems to be rearing its ugly head.
- US lawyers are salivating at the prospect of having Aramco in New York so that Saudi can be sued over 9/11.This seems to be a risk too far for even Ivanhoe.
- In the UK Theresa May herself has lobbied the Saudis for the listing---she has a splendid track record for effectiveness.
- The lawyers and investment bankers are indeed drooling but
- Groups representing the pension and mutual funds are lobbying against a London listing arguing that it would require major rule changes and would damage the integrity of the UK Capital markets.
- These are the expected BUYERS of the stock--oops.
- The latest wheeze is the advice to sell the stake to other government companies --principally Chinese.
- Sound like a little problem to me.
- No doubt the Aramco technocrats are fighting a rear guard action against the minimum transparency on reserves,production costs and capital budgets that a listing will require.Although they will keep their heads down while the coup unfolds.
- Earlier this year the Prince picked a fight with Qatar.Accusing it of funding terrorism--really rich--and collaborating with Shia Iran.
- A blockade of Qatar ensued.No result yet old boy!
- Trumpski also intervened in this row over ruling the hapless boy scout Rex[I used to rule Exxon]Tillerson.
- Apparently nobody told Trumpski that Qatar hosted the largest US naval base in the Gulf and was vital to the logistics of the 5th and 6th fleets.
- One of bin Salman's demands of Qatar is that they close down Al Jazzera. This is the only independant Arabic language media in Saudi.Taking over the radio and TV stations--now that is in the traditional coup playbook.
There is of course my personal favourite piece of Prince Mohammad's genius .
Having announced the creation of a new massive sovereign wealth fund but before having the extra cash to fund it.,he personally intervened to encourage its first investment decision.
copied and pasted from cyclops posting of 5 JUNE 2016
Saudi wealth fund takes $3.5bn Uber stake
FT JUNE 1st
- the $3.5 bn in Uber is largest single investment ever made in a private company.
- the 5% stake values UBER at $70 billion.
- this is greater than 85% of listed companies in the S & P.
- For example Time Warner,Twenty-First Century Fox,BlackRock,Hewlett-Packard, Ford,Dow Chemical and General Motors all fall below $70 billion Market Cap.
- It is equivalent to about 20% of the total market cap of the Saudi Stock market.
- Investment is first made by Saudi PIF since Prince Mohammed installed a new team.
- People"close to the deal"were quoted that PIF attracted to UBER by,inter alia..the possibility that it could help bring more women into the workforce.
- They did not mean as UBER drivers but as customers who can now get to work w/o driving themselves--cos women cannot drive in Saudi.
Since that investment less than 18 months ago
Uber has retreated from China
Been de licenced in London ,Paris,Barcelona
Lost multiple law suits with its drivers
Run afoul of women protest groups
Fired its founder and chief shareholder
Had a sexism feud on its board
Seen the rise of multiple competitors,most notably LYFT in the USA and Europe
and local entrants in LDC s
Its "value" is now estimated at about a still stunning $40 billion .
In 18 months That's a 40 percent drop or $1.4 billion on the Crown Prince's first foray into investing.
The legendary Prince Talaweed -the Warren Buffet of the desert--did not invest in Uber,
He invested in LYFT.
This is the Crown Prince's track record from cratering the oil price to invading Yemen, listing Aramco ,economic vision 2030,blockading Qatar,arresting the Lebanese prime minister,buying yachts and car hire companies.
Anyone betting against a counter coup by New Year?
https://kingcyclops.blogspot.com/b/post-preview?token=nAfvtV8BAAA.V14HubE2yAMqD1dwvM2AjhyVbLDf99fpeTtKN4BnWKGUibhUaAGi3B4Wzz9B7INJ82me9w_EL4J4Y1wt7QEJ4g.hAFx07HPWHhBGF-24LdOig&postId=1242030159386062075&type=POST
https://kingcyclops.blogspot.com/b/post-preview?token=tMrwtV8BAAA.V14HubE2yAMqD1dwvM2AjhyVbLDf99fpeTtKN4BnWKHM3xA9lfvgVw0Da4TXGtdFMnrEI0ETpbegR_FSoR3Ksg.cyiDHcHa-4qYw8QETMYUYw&postId=4114740923333601981&type=POST
Tuesday, November 7, 2017
and another :Trumpski tweets his support for the Crown Prince coup in Saudi Arabia
Trumpski tweets his support for the Crown Prince coup in Saudi Arabia
Investigative reporters of the world unite.You have nothing to lose but your Pulitzer's.
Just as in Russki Gate --follow the money.LOTS OF IT.
What on earth is a US president,even one as deranged and ignorant as the Donald,doing taking sides in a fratricidal civil war amongst feudal gangsters. Saudi Arabia ,under the Crown Prince's father and uncles has been the leading financier of Jihadi terrorism,including that of Osama bin Laden--the scion of an extraordinarily wealthy family close to the Palace.
Real politique around the dominant World Crude Oil producer may have meant that the US and western powers have had to buttress this dreadful regime for 3/4 trs of a century but what is the US interest in backing this particular branch of the family before it is clear who will win?
This is NOT the good guy vs the bad guys.Just a deluded, narcissistic power grab by an inexperienced, inept con man before his senile father dies and the family unites around someone else.
Well actually that last sentence may explain Trumpski's tweet .
The King has NO doubt that the State Department Arabists--you know the ones REX[I used to rule EXXON]
TILLERSON has not appointed/hired so that he can save their salaries to be distributed to the Exxon Board---would have STRONGLY advised not to back anyone until the smoke has cleared and then,as always,back the winner.They have at least learned that much from Perfidious Albion[the British to you Yanks].
This "Corruption Coup' is only round one in a major world title fight.King Cyclops ,and nobody else,has any idea who will end up ruling Saudi--did Trotsky succeed Lenin? or Beria Stalin? or what's his name Mao?Their successors were not even guessed at by outside "experts" and diplomats.
Saudi family politics is at least as opaque to the rest of us as the Kremlin under the commies.King Cyclops will wager a month of his fortune that the last man standing will NOT be Prince Mohammad bin Salman.
- So why has Trumpski so precipitously and rapidly picked sides and backed the boy?
- Could it be he is impressed by the Prince's promise to allow women to drive?
- Is he so taken by his promise to transform the Saudi economy away from oil dependence by 2030;surely as likely as Trumpski's promise to "bring back your coal jobs"?
- Maybe its the plan to build three new cities--one to be run by robots--that so impresses the Developer in Chief?
- Or the dramatic firing of Lebanon's Sunni President?So redolent of Trumpski's own dramatic role in the "APPRENTICE"
- Surely not the "shock and awe" of the Prince's war of genocide on the impoverished Houthi in Yemen?
Well if none of these .Then what?
On October 30th CNN and other news outlets reported :
- Jared Kushner traveled to Saudi Arabia last week, a White House official said
- This they briefed was to "pursue Middle East Peace". No doubt.
As always with Kushner ,Trumpski ,Rosski,Manafort et al FOLLOW THE MONEY
Cyclops QUIZ: 1. Who will go first "be prepared" Tillerson; "not a Jew" Wilbur Ross;"Trophy Wife" Mnuchin or "Court Jew" Cohn?
2. Will they all be be gone before Flynn is sentenced?
3. Will the Men in White Coats come for Trumpski before he Wags the Dog over North Korea?
More Saudi coup emails
Sorry Sorry Sorry
In my haste I omitted the url to the latest Wilbur Ross Posting
I also promised a full posting on the Saudi Coup.Not had time.
I am tied up most of today but will try to get something out this evening my time.
I am not sure it will not be over taken by the counter coup.
Before I leave for meetings a few quick additional points
1. I awoke to this from the London Times:
"Trump backs Saudi Arabia’s royal family hours after corruption purge"
Its not clear that the times has this correct.
In addition,it has an editorial column which seems to think whats going on has something to do with corruption.
So the KIng's Court does not take this Murdoch rag seriously at this point.
In any event Trumpski in his demented ignorance backed Saudi in its spat with Qatar after his State Department criticised it and offered to mediate.
If he takes side with bin Salman on this before State has had a chance to sort out what is happening then
a] Rex [I used to rule Exxon] Tillerson should resign already.
b] World's journalists should get their act together to unravel Prince Mohammad's financial support of Trump's business interests.
It is notable that one of those arrested is billionaire investor Prince [the Saudi Warren Buffet] Alwaleed bin Talal. It may be noted that Alwaleed has invested billions in the USA ;not least he is the largest shareholder in Citibank
Despite many solicitations and proposals he has eschewed making any investments with Trumpski businesses. Not a nickel.
2.In December 2016 the German security services caused a major diplomatic problem with this
https://www.google.com/searchq=mohammed+bin+salman+wife&rlz=1C1GGRV_enUS767US767&oq=&aqs=chrome.3.69i58j0i66l3j5i66l2.92792j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
The Independant-London
Sunday, November 5, 2017
"THE UNRAVELLING OF WILBUR ROSS"
No sooner had the King sent you the email on Saudi "Corruption Purge" and promised a follow up blog on that and Wilbur Ross than we received this in the Royal in tray
Sun, Nov 5, 2017 1:13 pm NYTimes.com nytdirect@nytimes.com to KING CYCLOPS
"Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross has profited handsomely from a shipping company with business ties to Vladimir V. Putin’s family"
This follows the news on Secretary Ross 2 weeks ago from Forbes magazine:
"between the November election and January inauguration, he had quietly moved a chunk of assets into trusts for his family members, leaving more than $2 billion off of his financial disclosure report—and therefore out of the public eye. Ross revealed the existence existence of those assets, and the timing of the transfer, when Forbes asked why his financial disclosure form listed fewer assets than he had previously told the magazine he owned."
Good ol Wilbur "whats two billion between friends?" Ross---who?
In the last hours I have seen NOTHING on TV news about the Saudi Purge but plenty about this Wilbur Ross story and about the coming indictments of General Flynn and his son
So Mueller is closing in.
Should make the Trumpski Asia trip go with a swing !!!
Wilbur's association with Trumpski goes back 25 years to Ross organising the bankrupcy bailout of Trumps's Taj Mahal Casino in New Jersey leaving the Donald in control.Trump attended Wilbur"s last wedding
Wilbur's association with Trumpski goes back 25 years to Ross organising the bankrupcy bailout of Trumps's Taj Mahal Casino in New Jersey leaving the Donald in control.Trump attended Wilbur"s last wedding
Some bullet points from past CYCLOP posts|:
17 June 2017 Watch the Russki Money Trail.
Wilbur will Wail--and Squeal "Prison at my age ?!?".
2nd March 2017
Wilbur Ross has not been much in the news. HE WILL BE.
"The Russian onion is only just beginning to unpeel
[the King wants credit for not using the Russian Matryoshka Doll metaphor] .
Banafort will go to prison not for treason but for tax evasion.
Flynn's gone . Sessions next . Carter Page plea deal."
Back to Wilbur:
- Ross is Vice Chair and a leading investor in the Bank of Cyprus,the largest bank on the Island.
- By coincidence Cyprus is well known as an offshore havens for illicit Russian finance.
- Since its bailout by the IMF and Cyprus government in 2014,Ross has been Vice Chairman.
- Alongside several Russians,one of whom is believed to be a Putin surrogate,he is a substantial investor.
- A major investor in that bank is a Russian mega-billionaire Dmitry Rybolovlev.[more later].
- Ross and his team invested more than $1 billion in the troubled Bank .
- Ross named a new chairman,Josef Ackerman,the disgraced chairman of Deutsche Bank.
- On Ackerman's watch,Deutsche Bank paid $20 billion in fines and settlements..
- Including $650 million fine for laundering Russian money through Deutsche's offices in Moscow, New York and Cyprus.
- Dmitry Rybolovlev[see above] had the most expensive divorce in history
- Wife awarded $4.5 billion.
- He conspired to hide his money buying into foreign real estate.
- This included a $100 million estate in Florida.The seller---Donald Trump.
- A modest $60 million profit .
- They claim they never met and the deal was handled by an intermediary.
- Ross was co vice chair with Rybolovlev at the bank of Cyprus.
- He knew he was looking to hide his assets in real estate.
- He lived down the road from Trumpf at Mar-a-Lago
- He also knew that Trump needed an influx of cash to repay at debt to --who else -- Deutsche Bank.
Probably just a series of coincidences
For those interested in how the Mueller money trail will unfold;
please read the March posting :
Am I Reading a Bad John Le Carre Novel
This ties Wilbur Ross, Bank of Cyprus,Deutche Bank, Dmitry Rybolovlev and Putin to POTUS
Here be the trail to the Buried Bodies and Smoking Guns.
Manafort Indicted
This weekend the King has been besieged by his loyal readers for insights into the rumoured Mueller Indictments, Corbyn anti-semitism and, very surprisingly, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
This last apparently triggered by a segment on the CBS news magazine 60 minutes
Believe it or not his majesty will today devote most of his time to the subject of apparently least interest to his readers :Saudi Arabia.See attachment for starters.
BUT FIRST: not to disappoint, something on the first Mueller Indictments.
The pundits were having a lovely time over the w/e "analysing" the rumour and speculating who would be the first.
How many of you, my devoted followers, did NOT assume it would be Trumpski Campaign Chair Paul Mannafort.?
Too easy for anybody following the drama or even just reading the occasional Cyclops blog.
I have been busy today so have not had time to listen to the pundits, pontificators, prognosticators and pool reporters. But I have just googled the list of charges.
"Former Donald Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort and his longtime business associate Rick Gates were indicted by a federal grand jury on 12 charges, including conspiracy against the U.S.,special counsel Robert Mueller's office announced Monday"
NBC News
We all expected the money laundering ,tax evasion and general larceny but
"conspiracy against the U.S." ----Is this a euphemism for TREASON ?
How many of you have heard any of the expert plugged-in pontificators, pundits et al mention TREASON?
Other than King Cyclops of course.
If you read NOTHING else,read the APRIL 6 BLOG !
VERBATIM from that Blog in turn quoting August 17,2016 Post.
· "The senior Ukrainian prosecutor alleges that in 2006 Mr Manafort orchestrated a series of anti-Nato,anti-Kiev protests in Crimea led by Viktor Yanukovych’s pro-Russian Party of Regions — now designated a criminal organisation.
· The protests forced planned Nato exercises there to be cancelled.
· No charges were pursued because of a lack of evidence after Crimea was annexed. "
The King went on :
"If true--are you betting against it?-then this is Treason. No really it is Treason.
I guess Paul Manafort is looking forward more to his Tax Audit than to the coming National Security Investigation. Probably not good for future assignments. "
On the day I posted that Wednesday, August 17, 2016 blog Manafort was fired as Head of Trumpf's campaign.
I guess Paul Manafort is looking forward more to his Tax Audit than to the coming National Security Investigation. Probably not good for future assignments. "
On the day I posted that Wednesday, August 17, 2016 blog Manafort was fired as Head of Trumpf's campaign.
Post hoc ergo propter hoc?
Lets hear the pundits get their heads around a treason indictment.
Think Manafort will turn?
Watch the Trumpski Tweets getting ever more desperate and deranged.
Irving Kuczynski
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