Biden falling into 3-way tie with Warren and Sanders ?

  Poll shows Biden falling into 3-way tie with Warren and Sanders          CBS 8/27/19

      

                  This Monmouth Poll created Democrat consternation         

And glee amongst Republican "strategists

                                                                                                         

   Both emotions proved premature:                                          Biden back on top, enjoying wide leads in two new polls politico 08/28/2019  

 Polls published on Wednesday show Joseph R. Biden Jr. with a significant national lead  NYTIMES              

average

28.9 Biden +11.8

17.1 Sanders

16.5 Warren

7.0 Harris

But the hiccup of the Monmouth Poll may presage a real threat to the Biden candidacy.

King Cyclops has therefore agreed to reveal the psephology behind the Royal Court's predictions,prognoses,punditry and probabilities.

We use the following equation.                                               PrBN=100% -∑{Ttw + ꝺTp  } + Bd - Rc+ Pe - DM - V s  - {ث + בּשּ }

Where:

•   PrBN  = Probability of Biden Nomination 
•  Ttw     = Trump tweet density ; 
•  ꝺTp     = delta Trump approval/disapproval 
•  Bd       = Biden Decency 
•  Rc       = Republican Courage Index;  
•  TPri     =Trump Popular Revulsion Index; 
•  DM     =Democratic Mess Quotient ;
•  Vs       = Voter Suppression Effectiveness
•   ث        =Muslim turnout 
• בּשּ        = Jewish Angst                                                                                                                                                                        The interpretations of the equation results results are of course heavily reliant on the wry wit,wisdom and insights of HRHKC                                                                                   The mathematically inclined might notice the "Biden Warning" revealed by the equation:                                                                
•  The more the electorate concludes that Trump is what he is.
• That not only must he be defeated,humiliated and then indicted.
• The clearer it becomes that at least half a dozen of the Democratic aspirants can comfortably beat him next year.
• If ,that is,he is even on the ballot.
• Therefore Biden's chief electoral asset --that he can beat Trump--is increasingly devalued.
• Any stumble or hint of losing the pace can lead to a rapid defection to others 
• Who the polls  show can also beat Trump.                                               Herein lies the Biden Achiles Heel 
  
                                                                                                       It may increasingly feel to Democratic activists that ANYONE can beat Trump.                                                                                            The sirens will sing.                                                                      Beware the Rocks me Hearties.                                                    Sanders vs Trump in 2020 ?                                                               🙋 Warren Please                                                          If Biden falls and Harris continues to lose traction .                          Then CYCLOPS will look to the B team:                                  Butticieg or Booker for late runs down the middle.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

Tlaib,Trumpski,Netanyahu and AIPAC

  Well never has CYCLOPS post achieved such an                   immediate and satisfying response.

1."AIPAC splits with Trump and Netanyahu, backs visit by Omar and Tlaib to Israel"
    "We disagree with Reps. Omar and Tlaib's support for the anti-Israel and anti-peace BDS movement, along with Rep. Tlaib's calls for a one-state solution. 
We also believe every member of Congress should be able to visit and experience our democratic ally Israel firsthand,"                  AIPAC 
2. Head of the American Jewish Committee, David Harris, t siding with AIPAC  said                 "Israel did not choose wisely" in this decision.
3.Republican Sen. Marco Rubio  disagrees "100%" with Omar and Tlaib on Israel  "but denying them entry into the country is a mistake."
4. "AIPAC and other Jewish groups join prominent lawmakers in criticizing Israel’s                   decision to ban Tlaib and Omar" “the first instinct of Israeli officials to let them into the country was [the] right one.”

Including almost all US Jewish Organisations

• AIPAC (See above.)
• The Jewish Federations of North America 
• The Simon Wiesenthal Center
• The American Jewish Committee
• The Anti-Defamation League
• Jewish Democratic Council of America
• Israel Policy Forum
• J Street                                                                          And elected officials of Jewish Origins and Not

  In Israel itself?                                                                                           "Israeli Decision on Omar and Tlaib Inflames Politics in Two Countries"     NYTIMES
                          https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/16/world/middleeast/israel-rashida-tlaib.html?module=inline   
Today , Israel said that congresswomen Rashida Tlaib, could enter on humanitarian grounds so that she could see her 90-year-old grandmother, after she promised to “not promote boycotts” during her stay.

This is a second shift in position of  Benjamin Netanyahu:   

1.The Israeli Interior Ministry initially approved a planned official visit by Ms. Tlaib, of Michigan, and another Democratic lawmaker, Representative Ilhan Omar of Minnesota. 

2.But after a public objection by President Trump, it blocked them, citing their support for the anti-Israel Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement.

3. Friday, Israel said Rashida Tlaib, could enter on humanitarian grounds to see her 90-year-old BUBBA,----after she promised to “not promote boycotts” during her stay.
Proving how politically inept are  both the Israeli's and Tlaib.

Tlaib then reversed herself: 
                                                                                                                 Refuses Israel's 'oppressive conditions' for West Bank visit-reuters 
                      Tweeting:   “I can’t allow the State of Israel to take away that light by humiliating me & use my love for my sity{BUBBA} to bow down to their oppressive & racist policies,”                              “Silencing me & treating me like a criminal is not what she wants for me. It would kill a piece of me. I have decided that visiting my grandmother under these oppressive conditions stands against everything I believe in—fighting against racism, oppression & injustice,”                                                                                                                                                     
  Joining Trumpfski in proving that Tweeting is not the smartest way to pursue a political cause.
                   Some Gratuitous advice to Rep.Tlaib:  

•  You have been gifted a golden political platform by the desperate bigots Trump and Netanyahu---one very smart the other deranged,you choose.
• Use it for the Palestinians not your sense of personal grievance or for showmanship.
• Trust not this temporary adulation.
• Call the heads of AIPAC,the American Jewish Committee and The Anti-Defamation League for PRIVATE one on one meetings.
• Do not grandstand after these meetings.
• Seek common ground--on a Palestinian homeland there is overwhelming sympathy among American Jews.
• Not least in your own Democratic Caucus.
• Resist making enemies for no purpose other than personal narcissism.                                                                                                                                                                               There is a moment here.                                                             Will Tlaib seize it?                                                               The record is not encouraging.                                                                                                                                        

                                                     POST SCRIPT
TRUMP FOX NEWS POLL  issued Wednesday,taken Aug. 11 to 13.
     Before stock market crash,caving on China "Christmas" Tariffs and Israel fiasco:

• Trump’s disapproval rating jumped five percentage points to 56 percent,
• One point shy of the record high of 57 percent 
• Forty-three percent approved Trump’s job performance,
• Down from 46 percent.
• Record low was 38 per cent.
• White men, 46 percent disapproval. 
•  Independents, 64 percent.
• Fifty-nine percent  "unhappy with the way things are going in the country" and 
• Believe that Trump is “tearing the country apart,” 
• Compared to 31 percent who say he is “drawing the country together.” 

                   Anybody expecting some deflection coming?                                                                                                        

       

Israel BANS Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib

Israel BANS Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib from visiting Jerusalem and West Bank an hour after Donald Trump calls for move and accuses firebrand Democrats of hating 'Israel and ALL Jewish people'  DAILY MAIL 15 AUGUST 2019

Trip originally agreed by Israeli government.Israeli US Ambassador said the two  allowed to visit Israel and the Palestinian territories:

"Out of respect for the U.S. Congress and the great alliance between Israel and America, we would not deny entry to any member of Congress into Israel,"                                                                                                              Then Trumpfski tweeted ‘‘it would show great weakness’’ if Israel allowed them in.

If CYCLOPS was a Zionist or a member of AIPAC he would be embarrassed at this idiotic, craven,crass,kow towing,cowardice.

He is a Jew,an American, a Brit and old; a believer in free speech,dialogue and rational convictions.Neither a starry eyed peacenik nor a cynical war monger.A realist who believes that the two aggrieved and persecuted peoples of Palestine ,each deserves/needs a homeland.Side by side.

Neither should put any faith in fickle friends;Evangelicals & Trump nor Iran and Islamists.

He has in these posts criticised both Omar and Tlaib for their witless anti semitism and grandstanding narcissism.

The thoughtful,reasoned,principled  Israeli response to this trip --or one by Corbyn, Seamus Milne and Chris Williamson --would be to invite them to meet with Israeli officials,civil society and politicians of all variants--Jewish,Palestinian and Druze,left,right and upside down--as well as with leaders and others in the West Bank territories.

By cozying up to Trump,Netanyahu has aligned with a sociopathic,racist, loser and played into the propaganda meme that Hanah Ashrawi will rightly exploit.

Needless to say the decision has already been criticised in Israel.

"Barring Congresswoman would greatly damage Israel's relations with Democratic party, Israeli diplomats warn"           Haaretz  15 AUGUST 2019

The Israeli government position is a Shanda and weak.

Golda Meir must be spinning in her grave.

BUT after dramatic economic news, it seems Trump has changed the subject again

BRECON BECKONS-- AS the SIRENS of YORE?

   Brecon and Radnorshire by-election:

             Lib Dems beat Conservatives bbc   2 August 2019                                                                                     https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-49200636

•  Lib Dems turned 8,038 majority to beat Conservative by 1,425 votes .  
•  First test for Bonking Boris eight days after becoming prime minister.
• Soonest ever by-election defeat for any new prime minister

                 So clear eh?      Well yes ; and Not so Much.

The result is Dramatic 

Especially compared to the General election a mere 2 years ago

It is certainly an impressive LIBDEM victory

Reducing Tory majority in parliament to a single vote

  Further guaranteeing that Johnson cannot get a "no deal" exit through a parliamentary vote.

      Trying to circumvent parliament ,guaranteeing a "Hard Irish Border" will make enemies of his         DUP Ulster allies.

                 A subsequent parliamentary vote of "no confidence" could trigger an election or                         [CYCLOPS wonders] a change of Prime Minister formed by a "national coalition" of   MPs just to sort out BREXIT--through a referendum👾.

The results themselves can be interpreted in subtle ways by thoughtful partisans.

It is certainly an impressive LIB-DEM victory

                But they occupied this  seat for 25  of last 34 years         

Losing in 2015 general election after 5 years of disastrous, ill conceived coalition with the Tories.  

It could be argued their 14% gain and Tory 10% loss of share is a return to the position ex ante.

Probably 5% vote came from Greens and Plaid staying out to get a united REMAIN platform.

These 3 parties and the REMAIN campaign claim a mandate TO REMAIN.

Fair enough,but CON+BREXIT+UKIP= 50%  

Adding Labour to the notional REMAIN share= 49%

CYCLOPS must conclude that on the issue of the day the Monster Raving Loony Party 1.1% hold the balance💪 of power.

If only they knew what their vast party membership wanted ; but many of their traditional supporters are now paid up members  the Tory & Labour parties 😜

How else do YOU explain BORIS & JEZZA ?

The biggest loser on the night was undoubtedly CORBYN

Labour vote dropped from 7,386 in 2017 to 1,680

From a share of  18% to 5%

A Labour vote of  5% in WALES😡😢😠😒😖

The worst defeat for the Welsh Workers Party since the Romans

                                        

                  ANEURIN           Men of Harlech               NEIL                              Forgive him for Corbyn knows NOT what he does.

No,Literally

 This result will surely finish off Corbyn and his Stalinist Clicque.

AND

Yes Auntie,that result would be good for the Jews.

    

  

LABOUR,LOONIES & TRUMPFSKI

Much demand for CYCLOPS commentary on the DEM debates and this morning on the Brecon bye election in the UK.Today the US.

                                                 U.S of A.

 The pundits have had a wonderful time handicapping the debates as though the whole thing was a combined reality TV special combined with an Olympic figure skating points drama.

TEN ADULTS ... most over sixty, standing on their feet for three unbroken hours; limited to sixty second sound bites on the economy, racism, the justice system, health care immigration free college education etc; is a strange way to have a “substantive debate”.

                             A lot less here than meets the eye.

They and we will  have to endure this for a little longer before the real contest starts.

                              

THE DEMS.. can stop wringing their hands over the"circular flying squad" and "criticising the Obama legacy".

• Its August,over six months till the first primary.
• The fringe[in polling numbers] candidates are desperate to get                           attention.
• Going after the front runner[s] is all they have.
• This will pass soon enough as the field gets whittled down
• The "unpopular" impractical and pie in sky  proposals will fall under their own weight                             
• Note the pretzel twisting that Kamila Harris[one of CYCLOPS positives]       has gone through on universal  health coverage and “losing your private plan".
• Most on those on the platform would make a fine cabinet or senate.
• We also have NANCY.                                                                                                                                                                                                                     The Publicans have Trumpfski and Moscow Mitch .                                                  Six Publican house members have retired in last two weeks .                        Does "Canaries in Coal Mine" come to mind?                                                                                                                                                                                                             Not just Democrats but also the sane US majority have had it with Trumpfski.        
•  Why do you suppose he keeps up the crazed tweets? 
• The  rallies?   
•  The racist attacks?
• The rants on immigration?
•  Why today’s rage over China trade and Tariffs?
•  Berating of the Federal Reserve over interest rates?
•  The belittling of Mueller et al?
• The acceptance of Russian election meddling?
• The acceptance of N.Korean missile tests?

                     HE IS RUNNING SCARED.       DISTRACTION IS ALL.

 HE HAS PICKED FIGHTS... he cannot win and does not know how to exit:

• China’s XI cannot give him a trade victory and also lose control of Hong Kong.
• Kim cannot give up his nukes and survive.
• Iran has nowhere to go and Trumps belligerence could trigger a catastrophe. 
• Guatemala ,Honduras,Mexico cannot “protect” the US border even if they wished.
• Steel and manufacturing tariffs will not bring back manufacturing jobs taken by robots.
• Trying to destroy Obama Care has failed: a court “victory “making it illegal would be a disaster for Trumpfski,Moscow Mitch and the Republican Senate.                                                                                                                                        TRUMP KNOWS  HE IS IS LOSING..

• He is terrified the economy will not last through the election cycle.
• That's all he's got.
• He is desperate for something/anything to rescue him.
• Impeachment may be his best hope for a dramatic partisan distraction?
• Even w/o IMPEACHMENT congressional testimony will be a drumbeat, week after week.
• The tax returns are coming.
• So are further indictments of allies and flunkies.
• Epstein trial is on the horizon.
• Videos of the two of them cavorting will be aired again and again and again.
• When the crescendo peaks, Moscow Mitch and the rest will run for the hills. 

AFTER A HUMILIATING .. 2020 election, will come the indictments.

                 His, Kushner's and other family members.

Then the civil suits.

Both the state and those he has wronged will go after his fortune.

Part Greek Tragedy, part a Whitehall[slapstick] farce.

          

 Hands up those who would swap their own  prospects for his.

I