Saturday, December 3, 2016

Brexit -the Fat Lady is not Singing




King Cyclops is sticking to his Prediction


“…the fat lady has gone on vacation. King Cyclops predicts Britain will stay in the single market and may not even leave the EU"                                                                        5th November 2106

Nobody Singing Yet

TODAY'S   Headlines in the UK

May rebuked over Brexit in UK by-election

Liberal Democrats gain Richmond seat after backlash over ... EU vote
Theresa May was given a warning shot on Brexit after the pro-European Liberal Democrats staged a major upset at the Richmond Park by-election in south-west London, overturning a 23,000 majority.
                                                                                                                  Financial Times

 Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron :"... a remarkable, come-from-nowhere upset that will terrify the Conservatives".. "This was not just about a Remain versus Leave rerun - this was about people trying to say to Theresa May, 'We do not like the extreme version of Brexit outside the single market you're taking us down,'"
                                                                                                                    BBC radio Four 
Zac Goldsmith was dumped as an MP today in a spectacular by-election backlash against Brexit.
Thousands of Conservative voters in west London’s Richmond Park sat on their hands or switched to the Liberal Democrats to show their dismay at Theresa May’s hints of a hard Brexit.
                                                                                                               Evening Standard
Liberal Democrats secured a stunning by election victory by convincing up to a third leave supporting Tory voters to switch ... Tim Faron claimed that the outcome could "change the direction of British politics"They they overturned at 23,000 Tory majority... In a vote that became a de facto plebiscite on the government bricks it plans.
                                                                                                              The Guardian
The European Parliament’s lead negotiator in Brexit talks has mocked David Davis over the Conservative’s shock in Richmond.Following weeks in which European politicians have demanded more detail of the UK’s position, Guy Verhofstadt said he would now finally have something to talk about with Britain’s lead negotiator and that he would ask Mr Davis to explain the defeat.
                                                                                                                   Independant
The Liberal Democrats have secured a clear victory in the Richmond Park by-election - dubbed the "Brexit by-election"
                                                                                                                  The Week

EU immigration hit new high before Brexit vote. In the 12 months to the end of June 2016, an estimated 284,000 EU citizens moved to the UK to live, an increase of 19,000 on the previous year. The single biggest contributor nation was Romania, with ten per cent of immigrants.
                                                                                                                 The Week

Support for the EU on the rise since Brexit vote … even in the UK

Support for the EU has risen across Europe, including in the UK, since the British people voted to leave.Pro-EU sentiment has grown in five of the six largest member states, according to a Bertelsmann Foundation Survey... it showed that 56% of British citizens wanted to stay in the EU, compared with 49% in March...enthusiasm is slightly stronger  than France or Italy ;53% and 51% respectively .                                                                                     The Guardian

Farron: 'If the British people decide to say to Theresa May there is a better way forward than the one she is proceeding with and we then end up with a soft Brexit or, better, the terms of the deal are put to the British people in a referendum because they fear losing dozens of seats to the Liberal Democrats, we'll have done a great day's work.....'Most of them[British voters] don't regret their vote in June but they do regret Theresa May taking their vote and perverting it to something they never meant it to mean.'They want to be in the single market even if they are outside the EU".

                                                                                                                      Daily Mail


  •  The results of the by election cuts the conservatives majority in the House of Commons to a very slim 13. This will make it very difficult to push contentious measures through. It will also embolden the House of Lords to insist on a proper examination of any Brexit agreement.
  • Therese Mays "Brexit means Brexit" nonsense has clearly worn very thin.The British are waking up to the shambolic nature of her government's approach to negotiations and the real costs of leaving the single market.
  • There is a growing feeling that they were "had " by the leavers prior to the referendum.There is also an opening for the anti-leavers to appeal to a very British sense of the importance of parliamentary primacy.For many this was an underlying reason to vote to leave the EU.


Even some of the most ardent proponents to leave have become very concerned at the real economic costs of an overly simplistic government approach to its objectives and negotiating strategy.David Davis the chief minister responsible for the exit negotiations and according to the Times

Britain is leaning towards a softer Brexit after ministers admitted that they were considering plans to allow low-skilled migration and could pay to access the single market after leaving the European Union.
The government does not want to end up with damaging labour shortages the Brexit secretary said last night amid growing signs that ministers were moderating their stance.
The government was not ruling out the move to “get the best possible access for goods and services to the European market”, he said.
Earlier in the day Mr Davis told the Commons that Britain could keep paying into the Brussels budget in exchange for access to the single market.

Hmmm; must stay in the single market[Including all its regulations],need to ensure that British financial service companies can operate in the EU,will allow continued EU immigration,on slightly different rules, and will make a budgetary contribution as compensation for staying in the market.

                          So what's the point of leaving again?


  • There has been no comment from Mrs. May on the implications of this by election and the growing sense that the British people are losing faith in her approach to Europe.She is hunkered down at her country residence.
  • Her hard-line may temporarily appease the reactionaries in her party but it has alienated potential allies in Europe and lost her considerable support in the UK.
  • May has managed to get herself in an extremely uncomfortable place. She does not have sufficient support in parliament to push through a hard article 50 exit. She should be terrified that calling an early election will destroy the Labour Party, give the Lib Dems a new lease on life and overall leave her with a very substantial Tory majority-- at least in England. 
  • The last thing she needs is a new intake of loony Tory simpletons baying for an immediate exit from the EU and to hell with the consequences.



                                                          

If the slim lady does not find soon her political touch and an ear for the country she will be singing before the fat lady-- but her tune may be a dirge.

WE ain't leaving the EU---not really.

                

2 comments:

  1. It is beyond logic that those who believe in democracy should demand a second referendum on Brexit. Irrespective of procedural detail, the UK Members of Parliament voted by 6 to 1, to give the people their referendum. The referendum result was clear .. the majority of the UK voted to leave the EU. A result which the 'remain' camp find hard to accept .. "bad losers".

    No country had previously opted to leave the EU, so any 'divorce' was going to be messy.

    It would be a constitutional crisis if the MPs vote against the will of the people.

    ReplyDelete
  2. King Cyclops replied :

    No it would not .Possibly a political crisis, certainly not constitutional one.
    In fact the opposite is true.Refernda are not in any way binding under the British constitution. We are a representative parliamentary democracy.In theory a defence against the tyranny of the mob.
    We are not a not a plebiscitary dictatorship; rule by the lowest common denominator.
    One man ,one vote ,one time? Lenin is smiling.
    The people are always at liberty to change their minds.

    The groundswell against a"hard Brexit" represents both buyers' remorse and a sober reflection of the consequences of the government's idiotic negotiating "strategy".

    "When the situation changes ,I change my mind. What do you do?"-John Maynard Keynes.

    KC .. I bow to your greater knowledge of the political system, and use of words.

    However, I stick to the simple basis that 1.3 million more people voted for Brexit.

    The 'groundswell' to which you refer is the media .. a media intent on causing a politicial stir. The Richmond by-election was the result of a middle to upper class constituency. The bulk of the country opted to leave the eu.

    It makes no difference what you call it, 'constitutional crisis or political crisis', the people have spoken.

    With both Brexit & Trump, the neo-liberals have shown their intolerance to accepting that majorities have a difference of opinion to them & have voted against them,

    ReplyDelete