I'll keep this very. I could barely type the subject line for being convulsed in Laughter
Editorials in the London Times greeted the putsch as though the boy wonder Mohammad bin Salman had ushered in the enlightenment and good governance.Or at least he was bringing the Kingdom into the 18th Century.
"Under his influence, Saudi society is being dragged into the 20th century ...with reforms including permitting women to drive, curbing the powers of the religious police, privatisation and championing the country’s young people." "MBS’s desire to bring about reform should be applauded"
Times "Reporting" claimed that the majority of the middle class and young people "clearly" supported bin Salman's moves.
King Cyclops is very impressed that a western journalist writing in London knows this.He must have special access to the Gallup Riyadh Weekly Polling .
Of course this is in the same report that thought this was a picture of the accommodations for the arrested Princes and Billionaires incarcerated in the Ritz Carlton .
It seems they "took to the mattresses".
A less credulous reporter might have questioned how such a photo was"smuggled out" and made available to the world's press.Such pictures are not typically in the press kit of for coup d'etats.
In any event it transpires that the Princes et al are in fact in the Ritz Carlton suites and the mattresses are for their servants.
It seems they do these things differently in Saudi.Most world leaders kept their own counsel; Trumpski was straight in :
“I have great confidence in King Salman and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, they know exactly what they are doing,” adding: “Some of those they are harshly treating have been ‘milking’ their country for years.”
No notion of secret Saudi funding of the Islamic Caliphate;
Saudi funded Wahabi indoctrination in Pakistan,Iraq and Afghanistan
Deliberate bombing of Yemeni Civilians
The disappearance of several Princely rivals in Bin Salman's generation
The house arrest in Riyadh of the Lebanese prime minister.
Let alone of the advice of his state department and the
pleading of a host of Arab journalists,academics and human rights activists.
At least from those not in Saudi funded think tanks and western universities
Donald and 'the base" may want to keep Muslims out of the USA but Trumpski and his Prince- Jared, have no problem hanging out with the Saudi Royals-- all they need to do do is bail out the Kushner real estate disaster in New York.
So Rupert Murdoch [owner of the London times and Wall Street Journal]and Donald Trumpski are very supportive of the anti corruption purge.Well it cannot be argued that these two billionaires[well one billionaire and a president] are not very knowledgeable about corruption.
There is no question that Saudi is corruption rife.Its the family business.It is not possible that the good Prince and his dad have not been major beneficiaries.
In October 2016 the Prince announced a freeze on civil service salaries and acut back on Princely stipends.The same week he noticed a yacht in Monte Carlo harbour .
"Saudi prince Mohammed bin Salman 'buys £452m yacht' but slashes public spending"
The prince was 31 and obviously saved his pennies from government service very wisely.
Readers will be very
familiar with the role anti corruption purges,campaigns and rhetoric have with
the consolidation of power by autocrats of left and right
It would appear that
bin Salman is to Corruption Reform as
Vlad Putin is to Corruption Reform
Xi Jinping is to Corruption Reform
Erdogan is to Corruption Reform
Jacob Zuma is to Corruption Reform
Bob Mugabe ...........
Nazarbayev ............
and ever thus
What about President Trumpski? Heaven for fend!
You must be confusing him with "Crooked Hillary"
So will this coup by young Ivanhoe be successful and transform Saudi Arabia and thence the entire Middle East?
His track record :
- In July 2014 against the advice of his oil minister and the Aramco technocrats he insisted on expanding oil production in order reduce prices to "starve" Persia and break the US fracking industry.
- This caused Saudi Arabia to lose its Mystical control of OPEC ;has decimated its budget and caused a forty percent drain on its monetary reserves.
- In 2015 as minister for defence he launched a war on neighbouring Yemen claiming that the Shia Houthi tribe was harbouring terrorists.
- Saudi Arabia has the 4th largest military budget in the world That is not a typo.
- Despite that it has been unable to defeat the impoverished Yemenis.
- Salman is now indiscriminately bombing civilians and has imposed a food and medicine blockade intended to starve the population
- This has caused a rift with the US military.The ultimate guarantor of Saudi sovereignty.
- As minister of the economy he had Mc Kinsey[anything for a buck]Consultants draw up plans to "Transform the Saudi Economy" away from oil by 2030.
- This plan was greeted by Hosannas by many pundits and the usual crowd of investment bankers.
- Saudi GDP is 40% oil production.Think tourism and light industry is going to transplant crude oil production in a little over a decade.?For perspective the great financial implosion was a decade ago.The world is still dealing with the fallout and EU GDP has not yet reached 2007 levels.
- At a conference in Riyadh the week before the coup the Saudis and their advisers were "adjusting" their projections "quite significantly".
- At the same time,2016,the good prince announced his decision to "float" 5 % of Aramco on the world's stock exchanges.The money was to be used to fund a new one hundred billion dollar sovereign wealth fund;and the Vision 2030 thing and apparently 2 new cities in the desert.
- He was of course encouraged in this "floating" notion by sundry investment banks and corporate law firms based in London and New York.This was because of their enlightened view of the future of the Saudi middle class not because they were seen drooling at the prospect of mammoth fees.
- The Prince claimed that Aramco was worth two trillion dollars.So five percent would be a hundred billion.
- The preparation for this IPO is not going well.While both New York and London Stock exchanges seemed eager to get the listing .Reality seems to be rearing its ugly head.
- US lawyers are salivating at the prospect of having Aramco in New York so that Saudi can be sued over 9/11.This seems to be a risk too far for even Ivanhoe.
- In the UK Theresa May herself has lobbied the Saudis for the listing---she has a splendid track record for effectiveness.
- The lawyers and investment bankers are indeed drooling but
- Groups representing the pension and mutual funds are lobbying against a London listing arguing that it would require major rule changes and would damage the integrity of the UK Capital markets.
- These are the expected BUYERS of the stock--oops.
- The latest wheeze is the advice to sell the stake to other government companies --principally Chinese.
- Sound like a little problem to me.
- No doubt the Aramco technocrats are fighting a rear guard action against the minimum transparency on reserves,production costs and capital budgets that a listing will require.Although they will keep their heads down while the coup unfolds.
- Earlier this year the Prince picked a fight with Qatar.Accusing it of funding terrorism--really rich--and collaborating with Shia Iran.
- A blockade of Qatar ensued.No result yet old boy!
- Trumpski also intervened in this row over ruling the hapless boy scout Rex[I used to rule Exxon]Tillerson.
- Apparently nobody told Trumpski that Qatar hosted the largest US naval base in the Gulf and was vital to the logistics of the 5th and 6th fleets.
- One of bin Salman's demands of Qatar is that they close down Al Jazzera. This is the only independant Arabic language media in Saudi.Taking over the radio and TV stations--now that is in the traditional coup playbook.
There is of course my personal favourite piece of Prince Mohammad's genius .
Having announced the creation of a new massive sovereign wealth fund but before having the extra cash to fund it.,he personally intervened to encourage its first investment decision.
copied and pasted from cyclops posting of 5 JUNE 2016
Saudi wealth fund takes $3.5bn Uber stake
FT JUNE 1st
- the $3.5 bn in Uber is largest single investment ever made in a private company.
- the 5% stake values UBER at $70 billion.
- this is greater than 85% of listed companies in the S & P.
- For example Time Warner,Twenty-First Century Fox,BlackRock,Hewlett-Packard, Ford,Dow Chemical and General Motors all fall below $70 billion Market Cap.
- It is equivalent to about 20% of the total market cap of the Saudi Stock market.
- Investment is first made by Saudi PIF since Prince Mohammed installed a new team.
- People"close to the deal"were quoted that PIF attracted to UBER by,inter alia..the possibility that it could help bring more women into the workforce.
- They did not mean as UBER drivers but as customers who can now get to work w/o driving themselves--cos women cannot drive in Saudi.
Since that investment less than 18 months ago
Uber has retreated from China
Been de licenced in London ,Paris,Barcelona
Lost multiple law suits with its drivers
Run afoul of women protest groups
Fired its founder and chief shareholder
Had a sexism feud on its board
Seen the rise of multiple competitors,most notably LYFT in the USA and Europe
and local entrants in LDC s
Its "value" is now estimated at about a still stunning $40 billion .
In 18 months That's a 40 percent drop or $1.4 billion on the Crown Prince's first foray into investing.
The legendary Prince Talaweed -the Warren Buffet of the desert--did not invest in Uber,
He invested in LYFT.
This is the Crown Prince's track record from cratering the oil price to invading Yemen, listing Aramco ,economic vision 2030,blockading Qatar,arresting the Lebanese prime minister,buying yachts and car hire companies.
Anyone betting against a counter coup by New Year?
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