Don't want to bore too many readers So just a short email chain from last few days 
-edited a little for readability
FROM :CYCLOPS to a few friends and family February 20th 2022
Demand for a real briefing on Putin/Ukraine?
Not from TV pundits who know Ukraine from State Department briefings and maps!
From a man :
- Whose father during WW II lived in Kiev for 8 months
- Until Khrushchev “personally “ had him expelled--so dad said
- Whose forebears lived in the “pale of settlement " for over 200 years
- Spent 7 years on the board of the 3rd largest Ukrainian bank
- Was chairman of the First Ukrainian International Bank
- The only one founded and domiciled in Donetsk
- With branches across the Ukraine fom Lviv to Kiev to Yalta to Donetsk
- Got a real kick out of board meeting in Yalta
- Took all my self control not to rewrite map of Europe
- Appointed as CEO the colonel who had been military/technical commander of the Soviet/ Ukrainian nuclear deterrent--
- We think: he was a bit tight lipped about all of that--
- But very smart guy
- Who has has actually been to Donetsk-
- Watched Shaktar Donetsk in the Champions League.🤦🏻♂️
A more nuanced analysis of the balance between Putin the “rational KGB Agent” and Putin the mystical uniter of the Russian and Ukrainian Orthodox Churches and
messiah of a revanchist Russian Empire.
Kievan Rus'<BR>https://g.co/kgs/Q3BNX5
Responses
From a close friend FEB 20th: So what are your excellency’s views?
2nd close friend: I too am on board for the briefing!
Sister: I do
3rd close friend: I would love to read a brief from your acquaintance, who was expelled by Khrushchev!
But I can’t find any link to it, only a link to the Wikipedia page on Kieran (sic) Rus.
For what it’s worth, I don’t think Putin will invade Ukraine, except perhaps, send troop in the two Donbass Republics to protect them from “Ukrainian aggression”!
It doesn’t make any sense for Putin to invade because:
-The Ukrainians will fight back, building to building, like the Chechens and that didn’t go very well;
-Russia already has annexed what they want from Ukraine (Donbass and Crimea);
-Russia cannot afford not to build the Nord Stream Pipeline, if it’s cancelled they stand to lose more than Germany; and
-Putin cannot afford to lose his popularity over many Russian deaths.
All the best to everyone!
CYCLOPS lengthy response to last: [Hmm on re reading this last email below of 2 days ago, I may have to start taking Cyclops more seriously; although having watched Putin's crazy TV address I may have underestimated his spite, bile and general inferiority complex]
My analysis very much concurs with yours. It seems the "KGB Chess Player" has over reached and out smarted himself.
It seems the schizoid Messianic side of Putin is currently dominant.--hence my reference to the Kievan Rus.to remind us how in Vladimir's mind the Slavic RUS are all one
Not to criticise the Vikings for settling Kiev and Petersburg.700 years is a while ago but .......
Putin's messianic revanchism is reconfirmed in his essay of July last year.
Needs to be read for an insight into his delusions and intent
This is simply a restatement and reminder of earlier Putin stated goals.
His ambitions are not a secret.
Just like Mein Kampf in an earlier European dystopia.
- Putin has already achieved the miracle of revitalizing NATO.
- He has even found the only issue that unites the Senate Publicans with Biden--for a while at least.
- He has given an opening to restore Pax Americana after Trump had effectively buried it.
- Reminded the Europeans of the indispensability of the non Trumpian USA--however inept US military planning and implementation regularly proves itself.
- Boosted Ukrainian Nationalism
- Shoved the Germans into USA arms
- Humiliating the Germans--particularly that genius Merkle who closed their Nuclear Power program and made Germany an Energy Vassal of Russia
- And further enriched the venal Schroeder.
.
What is it about Germany and their Chancellors?
They haven't got anything right since Bismark.
- He may even have sufficiently embarrassed the perfidious Brits to do something about the Billions of dollars of stolen Russian patrimony located in Londonigrad;
- and still flowing in at $100/barrel oil.
- This a national disgrace I take very personally.
- Boris must act
- By that I mean do something about it not his usual clowning.
- The first step should be to confiscate Roman Abromovich's Chelsea
- The law is already in place.
- Needs just a simple "order in council."
- That would send a signal
He has already stiffened resolve in Poland, Hungary and Bulgaria.
To say nothing of the Baltic States and Sweden.
Instead of Russian Diplomacy dividing and Salamiing their near neighbors; Putin's reckless bullying has united them to a degree never seen in European history.
There does not seem any "good " outcome for Putin now
a] He does not invade --
Loses huge face internationally by being out smarted and faced down by "Sleepy Joe"
Continues to keep his military mobilised at huge economic cost and increasing disaffection at home .
Upsets the Russian Orthodox Patriarchy-- pining to control the Ukrainian Patriarch
b] He does invade - Chechnya and Afghanistan will then appear as mere prologue.
The Ukrainians lost millions to Stalin's famine and Then an extraordinary number of its males to Hitler
But they fought on .
- The body bags will flow back to Peterburg, Moscow and beyond the Urals.
- The flower of Russian youth back to their mothers --one at a time; year after year.
- The Ukrainians will pay a terrible price.
- But Kiev will get revenge --soldier by soldier.
- Exports of Russian gas will collapse.
- Their banking system will be destroyed by sanctions.
- Putin and his friends will learn that USA, UK, French and German intelligence may not be as effective as they once were but they will find their treasure ,houses, yachts and mistresses
- .Most of it anyway.
- You think MI6 does not have the telephone numbers of the Panama Papers authors?
- Even Deutche Bank will fess up .
- Cyprus will collapse.
- Does any body really think that if Putin retaliates by attacking Western cyber targets that US/UK/FRANCE/FINLAND do not have the geeks to shut down the electric power of Petersburg and Moscow
- as well as the Russki military communication system
- The body bags will be delivered in the dark--and cold!
Their daughters will be as welcome to soirees in London ,Paris and Rome as Ivanka is in New York.
Putin has proved he is no evil genius. Just an evil paranoid.
Irving Kuczynski 
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