Events are slowly unfolding in the direction King Cyclops prefers and predicted.
Two items of news in the last 48 hours may serve to prepare the ground for the so-called soft
Brexit. Maybe one so soft that it it will produce an outcome that would readily be accepted by the British and by many of their European neighbors.
To wit :
- Britain remains in the single market
- The European Union concedes,in all but name,an end to unlimited,unregulated movement
- The reclaiming of British Parliament's primacy over British laws,and
- the same sovereignty returning to each European country which so desires
THE FIRST ITEM
German Council of Economic Experts
Two days ago the German Council of Economic Experts presented a report calling on
their government to prevent Brexit from going ahead.The group,known as the WISE MEN stated:
- “An exit of the United Kingdom from the EU would not only mean an economic loss, but above all a bigger political loss,"
- “Given the consequences, political actors should not assume too soon that Brexit is a done deal,”
- “The best outcome of the upcoming negotiations would therefore be if a Brexit could be averted.”
- “The German Council of Economic Experts calls for constructive negotiations to prevent an exit",
In this report they recommended Merkel take a soft and generous position towards the British ;to seek compromise over the contentious issue of intra-EU migration and seek to create a consensus in Europe encouraging the British change their mind and stay in the EU.Or at least seek a soft landing in the interests of Europe as a whole.
Those of us immersed in the British political and social culture will wonder: Who cares what a group of German experts think? The Germans. And therefore Angela Merkel.
In British culture the"gifted amateur" and the casual,languid player are highly lauded. It is not surprising that politicians, the tabloids and journalist generally should feel this way.This after all broadly describes their class and gives them license to pontificate, criticize and,indeed,rule.
P
ermanent Secretary for Permanence
This system has been taken to its logical conclusion in government.Most senior civil servants have general first degrees from Oxbridge and went to the right schools. Cabinet ministers rarely serve in a department for more than two years and even more rarely have any real expertise in the subject matter over which they preside.
This is not to say that they are stupid, malign or lazy.Although they may well be.
Just that they are ill-prepared and typically not the best qualified to do a good job.This system is of course Democratic in the sense that to become a minister you have to be first elected to Parliament by the people; apparently very Democratic.In fact a recipe for capture and control by the permanent [gifted amateur] civil service.As well as individual MPs being in thrall to the Prime Minister who chooses you for the job.
In Germany qualifications, and relevant experience are more highly prized. This is true from the extensive apprenticeship system in the crafts all the way through to the social premium extended to continued higher education. It is unusual for a senior civil servant or business leader not to have a second-degree and a surprisingly large number have doctorates relevant to their professional area.
No that does not mean King Cyclops wishes the British were more like the Germans.The King certainly notes that higher degrees have not created particular German competence in the subtleties, analysis and implementation of foreign policy. It's just to note that this respect for expertise and training seems to have paid off at least in terms of economic achievement.They may or may not be as happy as or as much fun to be with as the British. They also usually beat us at football.
But I have digressed substantially. The point is that this group of experts will exert significant influence and give Merkel the political space to seek creative compromises with Theresa May. Barring bad health or cataclysmic events,these two daughters of the protestant clergy will shape the future of Europe for a generation.
ARE YOU LISTENING TO ME?!?
The King hopes they have the imagination,wisdom and vision;as well as the ability to seek sound advice.The early signs are not good. Monnet,Schumann or Adeneur they are not.Nor is there a Maynard Keynes in the upper reaches of Whitehall.
.
THE SECOND ITEM
THE HIGH COURT
This was of course much more widely noted
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/high-court-rules-that-may-needs-mps-approval-to-trigger-article-50-tnjgrfn9c
The landmark High Court judgment ruled:
Theresa May does “not have power” to trigger Article 50. Only Parliament can begin the process of leaving the EU.
IT AFFIRMED
[yeah its stilted English but worth reading]
"The powerful constitutional principle that the Crown [
that's the government] has no power to alter the law of the land by use of its prerogative powers is the
product of an especially strong constitutional tradition in the United Kingdom. It evolved through the
long struggle to assert parliamentary sovereignty and constrain the Crown’s prerogative powers. It would be surprising indeed if, in the light of that tradition, parliament, as the sovereign body under our constitution, intended to leave [this] continued existence."
It means the people elect the parliament,parliament passes laws and places checks on the government.Imperfect as it may be, that's part of the essence of British Democracy and therefore freedom.No mention of plebiscites here.
Who would've thought King Cyclops would be paying tribute to three old establishmentarians dressed in wigs, cravats, kaftans and garters.They have stood three square as a bulwark against the tyranny of the [temporary] majority. Champions of the parliamentary,representative form of democracy.Guarding against the hysteria and jingoism of the demagogues and the mob.
Think I'm exaggerating? Read the tabloids, listen to Nigel Farage, Liam Fox and the other zealots. You would think that the judges had abolished freedom and democracy. In fact they have protected our democracy against an overweening government acting without the license of Parliament.That Parliament which contains our elected representatives – however pathetic individually and as a group.
The judges made clear that they were not ruling on the merits of the EU, Brexit, government policy, or anything other than the primacy of Parliament over the Executive in the making and rescinding of laws.The alternate ruling would have given the executive power to steamroller our elected representatives and take us further along the road to the overweening concentration of power in the hands of a single party leader.
King Cyclops applauds their integrity and is grateful for their protection.
Mrs.May is not so enthusiastic.
But then parliamentary scrutiny of Mrs.May's strategy and objectives will prove very,very problematic--she does not have any;beyond pacifying her little Englanders. Brexit means Brexit. As in BS means BS.
A SNAP ELECTION ?
I will not overly dwell further on this,it has been much covered in the media.It has caused panic amongst the LEAVE leadership and press ;their greatest fear is that parliament will actually insist on due deliberation of the British negotiating position and objective and that the process will inevitably lead to another referendum.
They do not believe in further referendum.Like Stalin in the Baltics and Eastern Europe:One man, one vote--one time.
- "I worry that a betrayal may be near at hand."--Nigel Farage UKIP
- ‘Enemies of the people’ screams the front page of the Daily Mail
- the 17 million people who backed Brexit have ‘every right today to fear they will be cheated’--the SUN newspaper
- It failed to mention 15.5 million voted the other way.--[one vote ,one time?]
- The Daily Express -‘fight, fight, fight’ and compares the current situation to ‘a crisis as grave as anything since the dark days when Churchill vowed we would fight them on the beaches’
- I think the Express is still angry over the loss of Injaaa,
The Express goes on to call for an early general election which it has
"no doubt the Conservatives would win a thumping majority which would guarantee the safe and unimpeded passage of Brexit".
The Times agrees and reports "senior Tories are urging the PM to go to the polls next year",
http://www.thetimes
.co.uk
/edition/news/may-is-urged-to-call-snap-election-over-brexit
-ruling-sm9whqpqx
The
FT recognises "the temptation forTherese May to call a snap election "but advises against .
Will Mrs.May heed these siren calls and the howling from her base?
By the time you read this it may already have happened.
My guess is that it's the last thing she wants.This court ruling has given her a chance to slow down,have second thoughts,work out a real strategy and get control of the process.
An election will create a massive majority with upwards of 85 new Tory MPs...
Brexiteers all.Either from conviction or opportunism.Her room to maneuver will be gone. The Brexit faction will control the parliamentary party. These crazies for leaving the EU also hanker after the old Empire and British Glory.They will be reactionary on Europe and on everything else. Think of the" tea party" in the US. This should be Theresa May's nightmare.
We shall see
In the meantime the fat lady has gone on vacation.King Cyclops predicts Britain will stay in the single market and may not even leave the EU.
