Placing a Bet on Trump Regicide

   So where can I place a bet against Trump getting the Publican nomination?


     I had said that after Hillary clinching the nomination and Trump buffooning on his Mexican judge [keep it up Donald,keep that Trump U story up front and centre] the polls taken last w/e should show a Clinton lead of 8%+ or she should start worrying.

They have come in at between 10-12%.That is before the Orlando massacre.Since those polls we have had

1.  Trumps extraordinary self absorbed reaction to Orlando.
2.  His implication-in his usual subtle way-that Obama is in some ways in cahoots with Islamic terrorists
3. His dissing of Publican leaders       and
4. His screaming at "Pocahontas" Warren 
5. His general delaration of war and name calling of journalists
6. More coverage of his business record and unethical dealings--hurting the"little guy"
7. His "banning"of the Washington Post cos he did not like its coverage-particularly of #

                                               
As a result McConnell,Senate leader,Ryan,Speaker of the House,Bob Corker Senate chair of Armed Services Committee [and hot tip to be VP on Trump ticket] et al have been running for the hills to hide under their desks.I saw all three of the above decline to even respond to reporters' questions on Trump's comments on Obama.They no sooner fold and endorse Trump[f] than he says something and they get very acute remorse.

At the same time:

1. Bernie effectively concedes and pledges to work to stop Trump[f]
2. B & H orchestrate chummy "private"talks and their campaign teams begin joint election planning
3. Obama takes aim at "reality show'' nominee           and importantly
4. Hillary finds her voice and confidence.
5. Gone is the yelling at the audience/camera-still a little too elated about the glass ceiling but who can deny her that after all she has been through lo these 40 years.
6. Two good ,balanced ,well presented and statesmanlike speeches

One drawing a contrast between an experienced,wonky if somewhat careful politician and a loud mouthed bigoted know nothing---she said it a little more diplomatically. 

The second an adult,balanced response to the massacre in Orlando and calling for a ban on military style weapons. 

                                                So what's your point Cyclops?

I do not actually watch the cable news wall to wall.I am more a Law & Order and WTA UK watcher-very different British and Aussie detective/cop shows.But last night and today I caught several shows with the usual gaggle of talking heads and polls.

I detect a not yet articulated undercurrent or sub text to the discussions.

Amongst DEMOCRATS a belief is forming that dare not speak its name.
We have it in the bag.

Clinton,Sanders,Obama, indeed the entire party and its supporters are already falling in step.
To stop Trump[f].   The Great Unifier.
He is so bad,so bigoted,so divisive,so disorganised and so dismissive of his own allies that he will deliver us a Senate majority.If his trajectory continues even the House may be in play--a Goldwater Tsunami.

For REPUBLICANS,we have the mirror image.
Fully formed panic.

Their leadership is in full flight across the Savannah.Every man/woman for his/her self.Senators refusing to discuss Trump with journalists.Completely crowded out of the news cycle,even locally.Donors "sitting this one out".Significant number of regular Publicans telling pollsters they will note vote for the Donald.The leadership fears they will will not vote at all causing the loss of "down ticket" Senate seats AND governorships.Trump[f] is toxic and to boot will create record Hispanic and Black turnout--despite the best Publican  efforts to use local voter ID laws to obstruct minorities and the poor.All that long term planning destroyed by one loud mouthed braggart.They have unleashed  TRUMPENSTEIN.


BUT
             Herein lies the danger.Not just a fear of simple overconfidence or Delphic hubris.
 One must never underestimate the lengths to which establishment Publicans will go to retain power.Remember Gore /Bush in Florida.The election delivered by George Bush's brother,the governor,and a Publican supreme Court.

    They will [have] conclude[d] that they cannot win with Trump[f].Worse he will cost them the Senate,the Supreme Court and Governorships. They must now be examining every conceivable way of dumping him before the Convention.I know ,I know " this is fanciful" "will alienate the primary base" "is unprecedented".

But its Trump[f]--and he is going to lose them the Senate and more.This is MacConnell's nightmare.If they dump him they will not likely win the presidency but they might limit the damage.The King must die!

      I am no psychiatrist,but if the polls continue to go against Trump[f] we may be watching a clinical narcissist  having a public  mental breakdown.Mitch McConnel has the straight Jacket in his closet.

This is of course a scenario that some senior Clinton strategist should be designated to lose sleep over.
 
                  WHAT IF THEY DO FIND A WAY TO DITCH TRUMP[f] ?

A contingency plan just in case friends.This has been a very strange year.Still 20 weeks to go.

In the meantime where can I place a bet that Trump[f] is dumped ?And at what odds if I get in now?
100:1 or surely at least 20:1.

 Anyone got the number for Trump Taj Mahal Casino in  Atlantic City?

BREXIT-- FOOD FOR THOUGHT

    THIS DEBATE has really degenerated --from a low level.But I promised to write a blog and I am a man of honour.

  First a few comments that UK/US/EUROPEAN  pundits need to be be apprised of :

Under the UK [unwritten] CONSTITUTION: On laws,taxation and executive action the People's Parliament rules, NOT the people directly by occasional mass votes.From time to time the people elect their representatives  to the House of Commons with the duty to represent them --not as their delegates.

                                         http://press-pubs.uchicago.edu/founders/documents/v1ch13s7.html

"Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but judgment; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion."

Edmund Burke, Speech to the electors of Bristol. 3 Nov. 1774

The UK is a REPRESENTATIVE DEMOCRACY not a Plebiscitary dictatorship.

For my US friends this is similar to your system,just your Founding Fathers[nearly all from or descended from the UK,after the 1707 Act of Union with Scotland] went to the trouble of arguing it out and writing it down so that a king could not do just anything he wanted--Donald please note.

As you will recall from your civics classes Burke was a supporter of the American Revolution within the British Parliament.

Whatever the outcome of this BREXIT PLEBISCITE  vote a decision to actually abrogate the EU treaty requires an act of parliament.That's a series of majority votes in both the Commons and the Lords.
What if the members of parliament choose to excercise their "judgement" rather than follow the result of the BREXIT vote.

IMPOSSIBLE!---you cry.

REALLY ?  Well if the majority vote is to REMAIN the question becomes moot.
The government breathes a sigh of relief ,no need to pass any laws,life goes on.

A SMALL  THOUGHT EXPERIMENT

      There are about 45 million electors out of population of 65 million.

      On June 23rd 35% of  electors turn out to vote--15.75 million.
      51 per cent vote LEAVE                                      8.032
      49 per cent vote REMAIN                                   7.718

       MAJORITY                     315,000 or 0.7 per cent of the electorate.

 THE REMAIN PROPONENTS CRY THAT IT IS ABSURD TO MAKE SUCH A CHANGE ON
THE BASIS OF 7 VOTES IN A THOUSAND.


 Prime Minister Cameron resigns but first  arranges for Parliament to have a "free" vote on the EU.

That means each MP gets to vote his conscience.Even if that means for some voting as their constituents voted, there is no guarantee that the result will be a vote to LEAVE.I'd bet the opposite.

How dare they ignore the will of the people !! Well which people exactly? The national majority,their constituency majority or their own judgement as to what is best?Which is nobler?Which more honourable?

And their will when --on the 23rd June or in the opinion polls three weeks after?One is no more constitutionally binding than the other.

 Find this scenario absurd?

TRY THIS ONE
     
       Prime minister Cameron resigns.The queen calls a new election.
       Sterling falls 15%,the markets crash,mortgage rates soar,retail sales decline,manufacturers lay off workers.

       Much popular consternation and the opinion polls show electorate has massive buyers remorse and has apparently changed its collective mind.

  All three major parties Tory,Labour ,LibDems now led by three "unelectable" leaders campaign to overturn BREXIT and to REMAIN.

 Do you think Nigel Farage will be the new UKIP Prime Minister?

Well I am no Constitutional Scholar but BEFORE I write on the issue itself ,perhaps those of you out there more knowledgeable than I could indicate whether or not a  PLEBISCITE is binding on this Parliament.Let alone a future one,however soon elected.

Do you find these scenarios outlandish? The imagination of a crazed mind?A recipe for chaos?Only too plausible?

  All of the above.

Mr Cameron is not the sharpest pencil in the box let alone the shrewdest PM in British history.
But one would have thought that before commiting to a referendum on such a vital economic issue he would have been cognisant of Harold Macmillan's famous aphorism when asked what he feared most:
           
                                       "Events dear boy,events"

Cameron promised his back benchers a referendum on the EU in order to postpone a clash within his own ruling Tory Party over the power of Brussels.
He got Syria,Isis and drowning,desperate refugees.All added to a loss of control of East European economic migration.

                            He got a referendum on Immigration.

 

VEEP STAKES

   The Pundits are now treating us to Speculative Gibberish  on who Hillary and Trump[f] will pick as their running mates.

      HILLARY
                           Up until yesterday there was much talk of BERNIE.I doubt any of the Pundits really believed their own BS.What would a 72 year old Socialist from Vermont bring? His supporters.It is a wonderment to hear "experts" concocting theories on how much of Bernies "young" supporters could go to Trump.If Hillary can't get them anyway she is in more trouble than even ReTRUMPian fantasists dare hope.

      Favourite de jour,Elizabeth WARREN.I saw her give a terrific put down of Trump[f] yesterday.She is very smart and has well thought through radical views/policies on the financial system,employment and inequality.She represents the thinking left of the Democrats.
I think she is a better spokesman for these issues than Chaver Sanders.

When she ran for the Senate--because the idiot rePUBLICANs denied her a confirmation as the chief regulator on consumer finance protection--she looked gauche and uncomfortable on the stump.Not a "natural" politician.Boy has she learned.Very effective in the Senate on policy,savvy on avoiding the "gal" trap by withholding her endorsement of Hillary and now a very effective stump warrior against Dodgy Donald.

     But as for Bernie her "constituency"has no where to go but Hillary.If she were to be chosen then the Democrats would be doubling down on two white,liberal,baby boomer 70ish,women lawyers.Warren would be 77 at the end of Hillary's second term and even  if Hill loses after the first she would not be eligible to run till she was 77.
She does not bring any addition to the ticket and will anyway campaign as an attack dog against Trump[f]--she is enjoying it and knows it enhances her power in a likely majority Senate when Hillary takes office.

And Massachusetts has a Republican governor.

The Clinton team will let the speculation on her run for a while to play the news cycles.

As to others I have note changed my views since the the 10th MAY
BLOG  "THE DEMOCRATIC VEEP" --cut,paste and comments. Below.



  Hillary's Team is in process of touching the Democratic Party's Erogenous Zones

                      They will allow names to be floated to tickle various constituencies



        Hispanics---HUD Secretary and ex mayor Julian Castro;his twin,Texas Rep Joaquin Castro or Labor Secretary Tom Perez .Whats the point?Trump is doing the Dems work here.A vast and effective registration drive and more to come.Al three will want power and influence in/with the Clinton administration and will work their butts off campaigning.

African Americans---New Jersey Senator and ex Mayor Corey Booker;Deval Patrick ex Mass Governor.As for Hispanics.No Obama cannot be the VP--pity.

Women---Senators Elizabeth Warren,Mass.and Amy Klobuchar,Minn.Well ,as said above what is the point on doubling down.I am a fan of both and  Klobuchar is the right age.She will make a good leader of a Democratic Senate.

Progressives---Senators Sherrod Brown[Ohio],Al Franken[Minn],Warren,Klobuchar and Tom Perez.

       

Swing States--Sherrod Brown,Senator;ex governor Senator Mark Warner of Va.                          
       

Pro-Choice ---All of the above.

                                              An Impressive Bunch

.
  Hillary's main electoral weakness is white working class males.Trumps main strength is with white working class males.The campaign should not write off such an important constituency.

Trump[f] appeals to their resentments,fears and prejudices.She needs to reach out to their better angels.She should choose a white male,with a record of winning  this vote in a large,swing state with a Democratic governor[to appoint his successor].He should ideally have a good record of executive experience and an ability to stay cool under pressure.

                                                                    VOILA

                                                                 TIM KAINE

   
  Swing State Virginia Senator. Successful ex Governor and ex Mayor of Richmond.In addition he has Fluent Spanish and a progressive record as governor of what has been a conservative state.He is a practicing Catholic who worked in Honduras running a trade school during a sabbatical from Harvard Law School.He  is personally against abortion but believes this is a private matter and opposes overturning Roe vs Wade.Do not underestimate the benefit of his Catholic faith to the American white working class.

      He is a clean {boring?}family man,no hint of scandal,likeable,loyal,reliable and experienced.This is a   genuine non-narcissistic,intelligent,well versed,decent man--the ANTI-TRUMP[f].


     I am obviously not the only one to tip KAINE but the Clinton campaign has been floating Warren et al. The Hispanic and Black contenders will all get their days in the sun of speculation.The less you hear short term about Kaine the more likely the choice has already been made.



            [ While I have been typing this --I type very slowly--England have let in a Russian goal in the 93rd minute!Thrown away a victory that was in the bag.I will now probably watch the England /Wales in bed on Thursday--its on at 9am here.]

  THE reTRUMPian Veep

Really not much to say about this.What Republican pol in his/her right mind would want the job?

If you get get the job AND TRUMP[f] wins.You can look forward to four years to continual embarrassment and misery,with no ability to influence either policy or his ranting.You will also have alienated the Publican establishment and donor class.Unless you are a billionaire you need them more than they need you.Unless you are deluded enough to think a TRUMP[f] presidency will be a triumph there is nothing but misery in your future.

 If you get the job and TRUMP[f] loses.You will be a pariah in the Publican party.

So you would have to be nuts to accept let alone want this job.So you explain to me why Rick Perry is campaigning for the job and bully boy Chris Christie has his nose so close up Trumps brain.

  Anyway TRUMP[f] will not choose a white male.Cos he is YUGE on giving women a chance.
  Sarah Palin  sure has the campaigning experience.Jan Brewer is nasty enough.Michele Bachman has the intellect.

Carly Fiorina and Megan Kelly definitely not on the list.More smart and independant than is neccessary as far as the Donald is concerned.
But my sources tell me that the Donald favours either Betty Cantrell or Nina Davuluri.
Who ? Miss America 2016 &2014.

               I understand that Nina Davuluri is the best tip.She is from a swing state New York,Young enough to run for President in 2024.Daughter of Indian immigrants--not native Americans,that's Pochahantas Warren --and Trump[f] believes that Nina should take care of the brown vote.But not too brown.

    Sorry ladies I daresay you actually vote democrat.                    
                       
                     
                       
               

                   

HOSSSANAH,HILLARY

   
                                                   TWO BIG WINS

              CALIFORNIA:   56:43                     NEW JERSEY:    63:37

             TRUMP[F] CRAZY NARCISSISM
       
             TWO GOOD SPEECHES IN A ROW

     THE NEXT PRESIDENT HAD A GOOD WEEK

                     OBAMA & SANDERS TO MEET  FRIDAY

NO NEW TAKERS ON MY BET THAT SANDERS ENDORSES FRIDAY---LATEST 10 DAYS

OBAMA WILL FORMALLY ENDORSE AFTER SANDERS MEETING--MAYBE TOGETHER?

WATCH THE POLLS EARLY NEXT WEEK-POST VICTORY AND TRUMP JUDGE DEBACLE


BUT LEST DEMOCRATS GET TOO CARRIED AWAY.A THOUGHT FROM THE ELECTORATE OF 2034.

      PS .NOT MY GRANDSON!     

MARK KIRK

GOP Sen. Mark Kirk: I cannot support Donald Trump

                             http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/07/politics/mark-kirk-criticize-donald-trump-temperament/

  Tip of the Hat to Mark Kirk for showing some common decency.Obviously not cut out for a Publican leadership position.

 In 1987 King Cyclop hired Mark to work for the IFC [World Bank] to lobby for an IFC capital increase.

 He was sufficiently energetic to rapidly get bored with IFC and return to republican politics .

 He was elected a Senator in Obama's seat.

The boy done good.

Obviously the  ReTRUMPian party is not for him.

He was always a good guy.

Congrats.

ps  I have bet a lunch that the Berne will endorse Hilary by Friday.

Any one else want some action on an endorsement by Friday +10?

From California to the New Jersey Mainland

   
 Come Clintonistas Lets Rally--We are almost There.

          Many of the most loyal Clintonistas amongst my friends have been in increasing despair.
          Less about the Bern than about her own self inflicted wounds.

•  The "bloody emails"
•  The refusal to cooperate with the State Department IG review
• Those damn Goldman Sachs Speeches.
• The Defensive Crouch within a second rate inner circle. 
• The Implications of Shady Money and the Clinton Foundation 

But by tomorrow night it will be the "End of the Beginning"  .

If She Wins both New Jersey  AND California,Hossanahs will rise to the heavens--or at least to the Hotel's Presidential Suite.

If not she will still have enough delegates--just without the Hossanahs.

Bernie will find it easier to bow out if Hillary wins California.A bit harder if not.Its all been such fun for an old Chaver.What a last Hurrah!And last year you were not even a Democrat.

So you have had the call from Barack,blessed be he,and the [Democratic] people,if not the proletariat, have spoken.You are respected and liked.Don't push your luck get out NOW.

The priority is to stop Trump,a Democratic Senate is within reach,and with it a more progressive Supreme Court;and with luck and effort maybe a Democratic House.Maybe next time,but with Donald's help who knows maybe next time is now.Gracefully concede Wednesday Morn,rally your supporters and bring that army into the field to recapture State Houses and Governorships.Avanti Bernie!

      Hillary has that most valuable of all the Clinton Political Assets-LUCK.

      Joe Biden was too hurt to enter the race.A Mench and the best President we will never have.                                                                and 

The negative,nabobs of the GOP have cowardly folded and handed their birthright to Donald's ReTRUMPian Party.

You think we could have had a more clueless opponent to Trump[f]?

Tell that to Judge Gonsalo Curiel--[Oh Read the Papers!]

Trump University
Money for the Vets

Book Royalties to Charity

Hispanic Judges are against him --cos "I'm building a Wall"

  That's just this week and the oppo campaign has not even begun.                                                                                                                                                            

   In addition to the above:
        Four Bankruptcies

        Mob Money

        Miss Universe

        Misogyny

        Sexual Harassment

        False Accounting 

        Racial Bias in His Rental Housing Empire --thanks Dad!

        Undocumented Polish Building workers

        Tenant Intimidation

        Casino Infractions and Fines

       Anti Trust indictments

In addition,Trump refuses to Release Tax Returns--but then Bernie is stalling too and will be out of the race before he releases them.He can't have made a killing selling Goldman Sachs Stock--can he?

And Trump is constantly changing his policy positions--sometime within a single sentence.

      If you had as much baggage as the Clintons could you imagine a more preferable opponent?

  So comrades hold your noses and march.Its Hillary or the Abyss 

  

PS                  "Kuczynski holds slim lead in cliffhanger election"
                       Uncle Pedro Pablo,77, is making a fight of it in Peru.
                       Its never too late.
                       Aint life grand.

PERU,SAUDI PRINCE and UBER

    Today is the runoff election for President in Peru

               

 Keiko Fujimori is the candidate of the “cult of personality “right.
 The daughter of ex President Alberto Fujimori currently incarcerated for corruption, murder, kidnapping and abuse of power. He is credited with having saved Peru in the 1990's from the "Marxist" Shining Path Guerrillas-after a Presidential coup in 1992.
Her chief of staff is apparently linked to drug smuggling. As was dad's.

She was educated at Boston University and has an MBA from Colombia University.
                                                  

PPK, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski the "technocrat" candidate of the centre right. 
                  
An ex Prime Minister, head of the Central Bank, Minister of Mines and Minister of Finance .All appointed never elected. 

He played flute in the National Symphony Orchestra.

He is also an ex World Bank Economics Director and Head of Credit Suisse First Boston Investment Bank.

 He was educated at Oxford and Princeton.


 Pedro Pablo is not related to Jurgen Kuczynski, reknowned demographer and econometrician from post war East Berlin. Nor to the Savant Irving Kuczynski of Washington DC, also a director at the World Bank who by bizarre coincidence inherited PPK's telephone extension.

 He has no connection to the crazy right wing Kaczynski who runs Poland and whose brother, then Polish President, died in a Russian plane crash. Nor to the UNIBOMBER.He does have other relatives.


 In the first round of polling Fujimori garnered 40% of the poll and PPK 20%.Keiko is favoured to win today.

From this, I do not draw any general conclusions about the Peruvian preference for the cartel supported daughter of a President who overthrew an elected government and used death squads to impose control,while stashing away bribes and drug money;as compared to a World Bank Economist and flute player.His father was a doctor.

 I deduce from their family names that both descend from the original Conquistadores and no doubt will be forced by the Donald to climb "THE WALL". They are not Muslim so perhaps the winner will be allowed in through the “DOOR”.

                       Anyway a shout out for “uncle” Pedro Pablo.

SAUDI 

                 

You may recall in my interminable blogs on Saudi Arabia that I was a little sceptical about Prince Mohammed bin Salmans plans to diversify the Saudi Economy by 2030 and to wisely deploy a $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund.

How wrong could I be!Even before the much vaunted IPO of Aramco and with Saudi finacial reserves down by around $180 billion in fifteen months.The following announcement should diminish all concerns.

Saudi wealth fund takes $3.5bn Uber stake

FT JUNE 1st 

• the $3.5 bn in Uber is largest single investment ever made in a private company. 
• the 5% stake values UBER at $70 billion.
• this is greater than 85% of listed companies in the S & P.
• For example Time Warner,Twenty-First Century Fox,BlackRock,Hewlett-Packard, Ford,Dow Chemical and General Motors all fall below $70 billion Market Cap.
• It is equivalent to about 20% of the total market cap of the Saudi Stock market.
• Investment is first made by Saudi PIF since Prince Mohammed installed a new team. 
• People"close to the deal"were quoted that PIF attracted to UBER by,inter alia..the possibility that it could help bring more women into the workforce. 
•  They did not  mean as UBER drivers but as customers who can now get to work w/o driving themselves--cos women cannot drive in Saudi.

 Sorry I cannot satirise this "first deal" beyond its own description.

There is no indication that Warren Buffet has joined the deal.