So where can I place a bet against Trump getting the Publican nomination?
I had said that after Hillary clinching the nomination and Trump buffooning on his Mexican judge [keep it up Donald,keep that Trump U story up front and centre] the polls taken last w/e should show a Clinton lead of 8%+ or she should start worrying.
They have come in at between 10-12%.That is before the Orlando massacre.Since those polls we have had
- Trumps extraordinary self absorbed reaction to Orlando.
- His implication-in his usual subtle way-that Obama is in some ways in cahoots with Islamic terrorists
- His dissing of Publican leaders and
- His screaming at "Pocahontas" Warren
- His general delaration of war and name calling of journalists
- More coverage of his business record and unethical dealings--hurting the"little guy"
- His "banning"of the Washington Post cos he did not like its coverage-particularly of #
As a result McConnell,Senate leader,Ryan,Speaker of the House,Bob Corker Senate chair of Armed Services Committee [and hot tip to be VP on Trump ticket] et al have been running for the hills to hide under their desks.I saw all three of the above decline to even respond to reporters' questions on Trump's comments on Obama.They no sooner fold and endorse Trump[f] than he says something and they get very acute remorse.
At the same time:
- Bernie effectively concedes and pledges to work to stop Trump[f]
- B & H orchestrate chummy "private"talks and their campaign teams begin joint election planning
- Obama takes aim at "reality show'' nominee and importantly
- Hillary finds her voice and confidence.
- Gone is the yelling at the audience/camera-still a little too elated about the glass ceiling but who can deny her that after all she has been through lo these 40 years.
- Two good ,balanced ,well presented and statesmanlike speeches
One drawing a contrast between an experienced,wonky if somewhat careful politician and a loud mouthed bigoted know nothing---she said it a little more diplomatically.
The second an adult,balanced response to the massacre in Orlando and calling for a ban on military style weapons.
So what's your point Cyclops?
I do not actually watch the cable news wall to wall.I am more a Law & Order and WTA UK watcher-very different British and Aussie detective/cop shows.But last night and today I caught several shows with the usual gaggle of talking heads and polls.
I detect a not yet articulated undercurrent or sub text to the discussions.
Amongst DEMOCRATS a belief is forming that dare not speak its name.
We have it in the bag.
Clinton,Sanders,Obama, indeed the entire party and its supporters are already falling in step.
To stop Trump[f]. The Great Unifier.
He is so bad,so bigoted,so divisive,so disorganised and so dismissive of his own allies that he will deliver us a Senate majority.If his trajectory continues even the House may be in play--a Goldwater Tsunami.
For REPUBLICANS,we have the mirror image.
Fully formed panic.
Their leadership is in full flight across the Savannah.Every man/woman for his/her self.Senators refusing to discuss Trump with journalists.Completely crowded out of the news cycle,even locally.Donors "sitting this one out".Significant number of regular Publicans telling pollsters they will note vote for the Donald.The leadership fears they will will not vote at all causing the loss of "down ticket" Senate seats AND governorships.Trump[f] is toxic and to boot will create record Hispanic and Black turnout--despite the best Publican efforts to use local voter ID laws to obstruct minorities and the poor.All that long term planning destroyed by one loud mouthed braggart.They have unleashed TRUMPENSTEIN.
BUT
Herein lies the danger.Not just a fear of simple overconfidence or Delphic hubris.
One must never underestimate the lengths to which establishment Publicans will go to retain power.Remember Gore /Bush in Florida.The election delivered by George Bush's brother,the governor,and a Publican supreme Court.
They will [have] conclude[d] that they cannot win with Trump[f].Worse he will cost them the Senate,the Supreme Court and Governorships. They must now be examining every conceivable way of dumping him before the Convention.I know ,I know " this is fanciful" "will alienate the primary base" "is unprecedented".
But its Trump[f]--and he is going to lose them the Senate and more.This is MacConnell's nightmare.If they dump him they will not likely win the presidency but they might limit the damage.The King must die!
I am no psychiatrist,but if the polls continue to go against Trump[f] we may be watching a clinical narcissist having a public mental breakdown.Mitch McConnel has the straight Jacket in his closet.
This is of course a scenario that some senior Clinton strategist should be designated to lose sleep over.
WHAT IF THEY DO FIND A WAY TO DITCH TRUMP[f] ?
A contingency plan just in case friends.This has been a very strange year.Still 20 weeks to go.
In the meantime where can I place a bet that Trump[f] is dumped ?And at what odds if I get in now?
100:1 or surely at least 20:1.
Anyone got the number for Trump Taj Mahal Casino in Atlantic City?
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