Monday, February 29, 2016

THE TRUMP[F] KLAN

                 

              I return to the USA to see that nice Donald gentleman being pilloried by the Republican establishment for being too polite to the DUKE--DAVID that is.As far as the  the GOP is concerned the poor man cannot win---or rather the problem is he keeps on winning.He has been criticised for being rude and brash.Now that he is polite to someone it's a problem. 

     Now we English know that you are supposed to be deferential to Dukes and welcome the Donald's embrace of such courtesy.We also revere the 10 commandments;and as we know Mr.Trump[f] is very big,very big on the bible.

     Those bullies at the GOP are demanding that he transgresses the 5th of the 10. This comes ahead of thou shalt not murder
                                                       thou shalt not  commit adultery
                                                       thou shalt not  steal
                                                       thou shalt not  bear false witness 
                                                       thou shalt not  covet   
        Still guessing? Its one of the affirmative ones  :


                       Honour your Father and your Mother
    
      
The Trump(f) father bequeathed the Donald the family fortune earned from his Segregated Housing Empire.And in his youth was arrested for assault during a KKK riot in Queens.His first passion.

   To disown the Grand Imperial Wizard would be to disown the Trump(f) Father(land).  ---a bridge too far for a dutiful son.

   That is unless the news cycle has overtaken this blog and he has caved.In which case The Donald will have to focus on the "thou shalt not murder" one.Too late for the rest I fear.

  ps. thank goodness for Ivanka ,the Jewish Trump;she at least covers the first 4 commandments


Cab Driver Survey


                   I have been in London surveying cab driver opinion.



   The traditional black cab drivers were easy to poll--they spoke English,like as what I did when I grew up.They feigned little interest in discussing British exit from the EU---"nothing much will change guvnor,and anyway Europe's falling apart with or without us".Pretty reasonable summary.
                                   
                       But there was no shortage of spontaneous views on The Donald.All negative- "you Yanks have gone bonkers"  "Nasty bugger--but cracking Mrs---we thought all the East Europeans Girls were in London waiting table, cleaning houses  and doing massages". These are genuine quotes.


The mini cab drivers were more circumspect. All spoke understandable English mostly with Slavic accents.Concerned about immigration and London house prices.It seems they think that drawbridge should be up now that they are on the inside and kosher.Most seem to have been in UK a long time and had the concerns and views one might expect from aspiring ,hard working family men making a life for their family.

The Uber drivers were very difficult to engage,Just arrived ,little English,no idea about London geography and totally focused on their Sat Navs . A lifeline --literally and metaphorically.Legal residents? Maybe Uber is manning the borders for that nice Mr.Cameron.

Anyway a blog is in the works on the nexus of immigration, London's population explosion,collapse in the building of social housing, soaring rents ,stratospheric house prices beyond the dream of  local working families and new apartment blocks sold off plan in Hong Kong,Taiwan, Lagos and China  [common denominator? none in the EU] .


 Anyway there was a general concensus that Tottenham deserved to win the premiership.I do not believe that this view was influenced by interviewer bias.

                                           .





Wednesday, February 24, 2016

THE MIGHTY TRUMP[f]O

       Requests for comments  on Britain Voting to leave EU ,will do            but first:
                         THE  MIGHTY  TRUMP[f]O

     Wins S.Carolina and now Nevada Caucuses with 45% of vote

     Proudly won the " the support of the "poorly educated" and Latinos"  --no doubt he got  100% of poorly educated Latinos who voted in the Republican Primary--all 4 of them.

 Ahead by double digits in all next weeks states except Texas-where the population apparently believes that Canadian Ted is a paysanne.

   No reason for Cruz or Rubio to drop out and Kacich not getting traction ;while he holds on for OHIO and the North & MIDWEST.

If you are not astonished you are asleep.
If you are not appalled--even as a cynical partisan democrat--you lack imagination.
If you claim to have seen this coming ,you are hallucinating.

Can he now be stopped? Not if Cruz & Rubio keep close in 2/3rd place and each dreams of being the TRUMPO  alternative. And who says that if  Rubio  drops out that his vote would go disproportionately to Cruz ;and one  could expect  the Cruz vote goes to Trumpo more than to Rubio.

 It looks as though that Clinton Electoral Magic---LUCK--may still be in play!

  Bush gone;Kacich not getting the traction ;Rubio/Cruz  staying close in the voting leading both to reasonably dream---while shedding each other's blood. 2 Cubans--really! She should do well and get momentum from the next clutch of Primaries mostly in the south.
  Wonderful irony if Democratic Southern Primaries push her to the nomination before the votes in New York,California,Ohio and Michigan.That is :states with no chance of a Democratic win in the general election have disproportionate   influence ahead of  the major Democratic states .

Anyway Trump has to be the Republican Democrats want to face---beware what we wish for.


    Hillaries Achilles Heel[s]  

         those darned emails  
         still dissembling about those Goldman Sachs transcripts
          AND  OH that Clinton Foundation Money Trail

       but for now she has had  a great week.



    



Saturday, February 20, 2016

TRUMP



           I WAS GREETED BY THIS ALL OVER THE NEWSTANDS AT HEATHROW WHEN I                ARRIVED ON A FAMILY VISIT.


                           


                                   EVERYBODY HERE RIVETED BY US ELECTION



Wednesday, February 10, 2016

NH Bad/ Mixed Result for Clinton ?

                        Bad/ Mixed Result  for Clinton ?
 

   Republican primary  
    
  Vote     Pct.

 Donald Trump                                                              
100,406     35.3%

 John Kasich
44,909    15.8%

 Ted Cruz
33,189    11.7%

Jeb Bush
31,310    11.0%

Marco Rubio
30,032    10.6%

Chris Christie
21,069      7.4%

Carly Fiorina
11,706      4.1%

Ben Carson
6,509       2.3%





I got it wrong on Trump(f). I though his bubble would deflate after 2nd place in Iowa.But he came roaring back. With Canadian Cruz crashing Trump is the major non establishment candidate and presumptive nominee unless he BLOWS  South Carolina.This is good for Hillary.

 Got it right on Cruz.He peaked in Iowa ,narrow third here within 1% of both Bush  & Rubio. He dropped to 11.7% after 28% in Iowa.Has to make major comeback in S.Carolina .He might,there are apparently lots of evangelicals there and Rubio may be mortally wounded.If  not he slithers into oblivion ;maybe staying in enough primaries to drain evangelicals from Rubio.

   Rubio was another  BIG loser 23% in Iowa to <11 in NH.But worse he really did look CALLOW    and Programmed at the same time.Christie did savage him in the debates.To the advantage of            Bush and Kacich. Christie is GONE .Like Moriarty ,he went over the falls hugging Rubio
close but like Sherlock , Rubio may not be dead --yet.But Christie is actually dead."who wields the   dagger rarely wears the crown ".

   Bush has risen !--maybe the evangelicals will see the light.He beat Rubio.Shocked me.

   Kacich did himself the most good 2% in Iowa to 16% in NH by far the biggest change.The pundits are still not giving him much chance "South Carolina,Nevada,the South not his ground blah blah.Lets Hope Not.Lets See .If they are wrong he beats Clinton in November.

    There are 3 plausible "mainstream ' runners left . Kacich ,Bush  & Rubio.If they can all stay close through  April then maybe Trump wins.In any event they bleed each other and Trump wins.And  that's good for Hilary.The Clinton luck still holds.The Republican pros really want a decisive result  for one of the them in South Carolina,with the other two dropping out.Hope springs...Its not obvious   that is likely.But oh the irony if its "dead man" Bush and then the establishment rallies round him to   stop Trumpf  [Ted Who?]. Bush wins and after all the Sturm und Drang its Bush vs Clinton !!
       The gods have played worse tricks.


              

     


                  Democratic primary


Vote     Pct.

                  Bernie Sanders
151,578    60.4%
           
                  Hillary Clinton                      
                                                         
95,249     8.0%



             No two ways about it a dreadful result for Clinton.Worse was the manner of the defeat.
             Grumpy Bill,clueless Allbright  and a desperate plea to the "sisterhood"emphasised the                        campaign's tin ear.Insulting the intelligence of young women will not get you what you want  No not that.I have daughters and they have girl friends ,colleagues and classmates.If I know that they are way past "vote for a woman" because "she is a woman" then how come the geniuses in the Clinton campaign  do not know.This is political malpractice.The scale of the defeat is stunning.

          Clintonites, do not panic--yet.The luck holds .South Carolina next:large black Democratic        electorate expected to go big for Hillary.Ironic that a state with zero chance of going democratic         in November will have such influence on the democratic nominee.Of course the pundits and the Clinton campaign team which assumes that African Americans are an overwhelming lock for Hillary are the same savants who based their comeback in New Hampshire on gender solidarity.Hmm.


                       If Clinton does not win big in S.Carolina--then panic.

           And if Bernie gets the nomination,bless him, how do you think he will do against Bush or         Kasich or Van Trumf , after an October terrorist attack in a mall in Philadelphia.

           
            Food for thought.







backup feb7 Pre NH Debate

                                                                  Well, well, well


                     Apparently a real interest in what I have to say about the Democratic Debate of Thursday and some handicapping of tonight’s Republican show in New Hampshire. Okay I’m game .sorry I have not been quicker but somewhere there is a real life here. I have commitments to Lexulous games, online scrabble, which takes time cos I hate to lose; two grandsons—and some daughters and a son somewhere—household chores, and a bunch of premiership games to fit in .Spurs now 2nd but no comment in case I put the mockers on them, west Ham lost but then so did Man.City.Tomorrow can at least either Arsenal or Man. United.blow it ---both!?!

  No doubt none of you care and just await my insights, pearls and prognostications.

  First some housekeeping. Recipients have been responding to me, which is much appreciated and I will reply to each individually. Second, apparently the mailing list gets garbled and loses some addresses. I have no idea why but fix it when I note it. So if you get this but did not get the last, sorry. Also adding to the list when I get suggestions and from emails that come across the screen .As some recipients are new I send the emails as a string –this also keeps me on the spot for what I wrote or predicted .As you can tell I am really getting into this. I am exploring how to turn this into a blog link and will inform when achieved. Third ,several friends have suggested that I broaden the topics away from the US elections and write about some geo political stuff they have heard me expound on over lunches etc in the last year or ten.

 To that end I have several in early preparation: 
                                        Oil and the Saudi Game—money or survival?
                                                                                       
                                        Normalise with Iran—sooner better than later

                                       Turkey is key-- -pity Erdogan has gone loony


                                     Goldman Sachs—“Doing God’s Work”; too big to rail?

                                    German foreign policy from Sarajevo to Sudetenland  
                                    to Kosovo to Immigration,--subtle it aint. 



             On a lighter note -The Jewish Trump (Ivanka} keeps kosher Granddad Fred must be

–           turning in his grave. 











                     Now to the point:                           Democratic Debate

               First let me agree with most of the pundits. This was an adult debate at last. The DEMs looked so much more serious than what had gone before with the multiple Republican Vaudeville Shows. Much of this no doubt because of the format –two politicians speaking directly to each other and being prompted /questioned by two less than  preening  journalists  .  Also the absence of Trumpo and an overfull stage suited for sound bites not debate.
                   Neither Clinton nor Sanders did themselves much harm and in the parlance of the sophisticated analysis familiar to the US Medya .It was probably a “draw”. That is very good for Sanders.   The punditry is increasingly treating him as an equal   rather than a novelty. Not good if you support an ex Secretary of State, Senator from a major State, ex active ‘partner’’ in the White House and supported by almost every Democratic governor, Senator, elected official, fund raiser and macher in the party. It was not supposed to be like this and the “democratic establishment “is on the edge of panic. Well “courage mes amis” Sanders will not be the nominee and it’s probably too late for Biden to find a way in. Problem is the debate and its follow up, highlights her weaknesses as a candidate.

      Impressions.  Sanders   is every Jewish boy’s grandfather: He is from the old country (Brooklyn), he has a strong sentimental and intellectual attachment to the old country’s political faith .He is a good, decent and kind man. He values education and argument beyond baubles and things, and wants everyone to have a fair chance. What’s not to like? But he is not going to win a general election and therefore   not the nomination. Nobody, least of all Bernie, can imagine him as the leader of the World’s super power and we all know that’s the most important—but not the only --part of the job.
       Hilary can be imagined as commander in chief; but the baggage, oh the baggage. Today I’ll stick to the Goldman Sachs fees. Do they look sleazy? Yes. Inappropriate ? Yes. Ill judged? Yes. Does the issue undermine her candidacy? You bet. And has she shown a tin ear to the problem? Need we ask? Did she not prepare for this question?
  Her first response/ explanation .I was there at 9/11 and we had to rebuild Manhattan. Was she channeling Rudy Julliani? That drew derision.
So next when asked at the debate. Her defence: “What’s the issue?’—I paraphrase.  Everybody does it. Well if not everybody, then some very important people.  Really? Got a list of those receiving over $650,000 from a single company? “Well they were interested in what I had to say because I had been Secretary of State” .Does  anyone think Madeline Allbright got over half a million from Goldman Sachs; was she less interesting on foreign policy than Clinton? But they [and Big Pharma and...] asked me to speak. Is that a ‘they made me do it”?
“When I go to speak to Goldman or other Wall Street   players I tell them like it is; they will not get a soft ride from me. I am coming after their privileges and that  carried interest stuff. “Boy I bet that gets them shaking, Blankfein is probably still in therapy. “I needed the money”. So do we all. ”I was very poor when we left the White House”-- not anymore. “Can anybody show me a single policy position that I changed because of speaking fees? “Now that response is really an insult to our intelligence.
“These payments are transparent”. No plain brown envelopes here. They don’t use Plain Brown in Lagos, Joburg, Brasilia, or Moscow either. Maybe in Harare—wire transfers not working there. “But anyway I speak to lots of groups.”Yeah? What did the Mine workers or the garment workers Union pay you to speak?  Oh that’s right you could not fit them into your schedule.
 But everybody does it, Reagan got $2 million from Japan, Bush 1 did it, even Bush 2 gets paid to speak or go on boards. Boy that guy Bill Clinton did it in Spades—oops. And they all get huge sinecures on Corporate Boards ,Kissinger, the Bushes ,Cheney, Rubin,Geitner , Summers  all linked to the Carlyle Group,Blackstone,Goldman  et al. Everybody except jimmy Carter and we all know he is weird. It’s the American way. She did not actually say this last paragraph but that’s what we all heard.
  It’s been 3 years since everybody promised to end the carried interest loophole. Everybody.   Ain’t happened yet. I have lots of friends in this business .Nobody quaking just yet. As to “corruption”, you never see a transparent quid pro quo .When was the last time anyone read an article about a Mining or Oil executive being indicted under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act? Must be because there is no corruption in Guinea etc. High powered pols, bankers, business people and bureaucrats the world over are not that stupid. But influence peddling, crony capitalism and bribery is as rife in the US as most anywhere else, the scandal is not what crimes are committed but what is not illegal.
   Bernie has touched that nerve. And Hilary has to find a way to diffuse the accusation .It will not be easy. Maybe it’s just not possible to give a credible answer. And now that the “transcripts” have become this seasons “Romney Tax Returns” there is more embarrassment to come. That’s what is worrying the Democratic eatablishment.There is an army of journalists, trouble makers and activists looking to “follow the money”. And who believes that they will not come up with real issues about donations to the Clinton Foundation?
  Finally –clap,clap,clap-if there is anybody reading this who believes Goldman pays substantial sums  to passing politicians as part of their good citizenship and staff education processes please call me .I know of a very interesting parcel  of mortgage derivatives and corporate bills—very low risk, very high return –that I can get you in on.
 Hillary will win, but it will be painful and worry the stuff out of we liberal democrats.
Joe are you sure it’s too late?



Republicans   
I have used my time and space this time on the last Dem Debate. But quickly handicapping the NH Republican Primary:
Trump is deflating, the   plebs are getting tired of this circus. He will probably win in NH but not with anything like the vote expected as recently as last week. Cruz will also fade .Too clever by half and nasty; did we all hear the “New York Way” dog whistle for the boys in Iowa? Everybody will attack Rubio and he may begin to look shallow and programmed .But he may yet catch Cruz for second. If he does Cruz is a goner sooner rather than later. The real question is will Bush, Kasich or Christie do well enough to get over 12% for a good fourth.
If so it would keep that candidate alive and possible. The others will be under enormous pressure to quit and consolidate to stop Trump/Cruz. I really can’t see Bush or Christie getting enough traction. I think the Dems will get lucky and Kasich will go down but…but.  So…I forgot about Ben Carson but then so has almost everybody else. To summarise:
                 Trump wins but not as well as he was doing in the polls two weeks ago. Fading.
                  Cruz Squeezes second –or not. He has peaked.
                  Rubio good third –or even 2nd—and claims victory .The rest claim he is an ingénue; and all hat
                 and no trousers [Texas for less there than meets the eye]
                  Kasich best of the rest. But if less than 12% unlikely to build momentum to catch Rubio.  
                  Christie screams all the way to the exit    damning Rubio for being glib AND successful.
                  Bush, better luck next time; falls on sword for the party—now or after South Carolina.
                   Did someone say Carly Fiorina? Me neither
                   Oh yes then there was Ben Carson.
                        Now well out on a limb for those who hope I humiliate myself.

              Bless you all     Irving
                                                                  
         





      

backup feb6 The Iowa Democratic Debate

                      


    Well, well, well
                     Apparently a real interest in what I have to say about the Democratic Debate of Thursday and some handicapping of tonight’s Republican show in New Hampshire. Okay I’m game .sorry I have not been quicker but somewhere there is a real life here. I have commitments to Lexulous games, online scrabble, which takes time cos I hate to lose; two grandsons—and some daughters and a son somewhere—household chores, and a bunch of premiership games to fit in .Spurs now 2nd but no comment in case I put the mockers on them, west Ham lost but then so did Man.City.Tomorrow can at least either Arsenal or Man. Utd.blow it ---both!?!

  No doubt none of you care and just await my insights, pearls and prognostications.

  First some housekeeping. Recipients have been responding to me, which is much appreciated and I will reply to each individually. Second, apparently the mailing list gets garbled and loses some addresses. I have no idea why but fix it when I note it. So if you get this but did not get the last, sorry. Also adding to the list when I get suggestions and from emails that come across the screen .As some recipients are new I send the emails as a string –this also keeps me on the spot for what I wrote or predicted .As you can tell I am really getting into this. I am exploring how to turn this into a blog link and will inform when achieved. Third ,several friends have suggested that I broaden the topics away from the US elections and write about some geo political stuff they have heard me expound on over lunches etc in the last year or ten.

 To that end I have several in early preparation: Oil and the Saudi Game—money or survival?

                                            Normalise with Iran—sooner better than later

                                            Turkey is key-- -pity Erdogan has gone loony

                                           Goldman Sachs—“Doing God’s Work”; too                                                                                            big to rail?

                                          German foreign policy from Sarajevo to Sudetenland  
                                          to Kosovo to Immigration,--subtle it aint. 

            On a lighter note -The Jewish Trump (Ivanka} keeps kosher


–  Granddad Fred must be turning in his grave.   





   Now to the point:                           Democratic Debate

               First let me agree with most of the pundits. This was an adult debate at last. The DEMs looked so much more serious than what had gone before with the multiple Republican Vaudeville Shows. Much of this no doubt because of the format –two politicians speaking directly to each other and being prompted /questioned by two less than  preening  journalists  .  Also the absence of Trumpo and an overfull stage suited for sound bites not debate.
                   Neither Clinton nor Sanders did themselves much harm and in the parlance of the sophisticated analysis familiar to the US Medya .It was probably a “draw”. That is very good for Sanders.   The punditry is increasingly treating him as an equal   rather than a novelty. Not good if you support an ex Secretary of State, Senator from a major State, ex active ‘partner’’ in the White House and supported by almost every Democratic governor, Senator, elected official, fund raiser and macher in the party. It was not supposed to be like this and the “democratic establishment “is on the edge of panic. Well “courage mes amis” Sanders will not be the nominee and it’s probably too late for Biden to find a way in. Problem is the debate and its follow up, highlights her weaknesses as a candidate.

      Impressions.  Sanders   is every Jewish boy’s grandfather: He is from the old country (Brooklyn), he has a strong sentimental and intellectual attachment to the old country’s political faith .He is a good, decent and kind man. He values education and argument beyond baubles and things, and wants everyone to have a fair chance. What’s not to like? But he is not going to win a general election and therefore   not the nomination. Nobody, least of all Bernie, can imagine him as the leader of the World’s super power and we all know that’s the most important—but not the only --part of the job.
       Hilary can be imagined as commander in chief; but the baggage, oh the baggage. Today I’ll stick to the Goldman Sachs fees. Do they look sleazy? Yes. Inappropriate ? Yes. Ill judged? Yes. Does the issue undermine her candidacy? You bet. And has she shown a tin ear to the problem? Need we ask? Did she not prepare for this question?
  Her first response/ explanation .I was there at 9/11 and we had to rebuild Manhattan. Was she channeling Rudy Gulliani? That drew derision. 

  So  when next asked at the debate. Her defence  : “What’s the issue?’—I paraphrase --everybody does it. Well if not everybody, then some very important people. " Really? Got a list of those receiving over $650,000 from a single company? “Well they were interested in what I had to say because I had been Secretary of State” . Does  anyone think Madeleine Allbright got over half a million from Goldman Sachs; was she less interesting on foreign policy than Clinton? "But they [and Big Pharma and...] asked me to speak" . Is that a ‘they made me do it”?
   
     “When I go to speak to Goldman or other Wall Street   players I tell them like it is; they will not get a soft ride from me. I am coming after their privileges and that carried interest stuff. “ Boy I bet that gets them shaking, Blankfein is probably still in therapy.Hostage to fortune on those transcripts. “I needed the money”. So do we all. ”I was very poor when we left the White House”-- not anymore. 

      “Can anybody show me a single policy position that I changed because of speaking fees? “Now            that response is really an insult to our intelligence.

     “These payments are transparent”. No plain brown envelopes here. They don’t use Plain Brown in Lagos, Joburg, Brasilia, or Moscow either. Maybe in Harare—wire transfers not working there. “But anyway I speak to lots of groups.”Yeah? What did the Mine workers or the garment workers Union pay you to speak?  Oh that’s right you could not fit them into your schedule.

    "But everybody does it, Reagan got $2 million from Japan, Bush One did it, even Bush 2 gets paid to speak or go on boards. Boy that guy Bill Clinton did it in Spades—oops. And they all get huge sinecures on Corporate Boards ,Kissinger, the Bushes ,Cheney, Rubin,Geitner , Summers  all linked to the Carlyle Group,Blackstone,Goldman  et al. Everybody except jimmy Carter and we all know he is weird. It’s the American way.  " She did not actually say this last paragraph but that’s what we all heard.

   It’s been 3 years since everybody promised to end the carried interest loophole. Everybody.   Ain’t happened yet. I have lots of friends in this business .Nobody quaking just yet. As to “corruption”, you never see a transparent quid pro quo .When was the last time anyone read an article about a Mining or Oil executive being indicted under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act? Must be because there is no corruption in Guinea ,Angola, Kazkhstan etc. High powered pols, bankers, business people and bureaucrats the world over are not that stupid. Influence peddling, crony capitalism and bribery is as rife in the US as most anywhere else, the scandal is not what crimes are committed but what is not a
crime.
   Bernie has touched that nerve. And Hilary has to find a way to diffuse the accusation .It will not be easy. Maybe it’s just not possible to give a credible answer. And now that the “transcripts” have become this seasons “Romney Tax Returns” there is more embarrassment to come. That’s what is worrying the Democratic establishment.There is an army of journalists, trouble makers and activists looking to “follow the money”. And who believes that they will not come up with real issues about donations to the Clinton Foundation?
  Finally –clap,clap,clap-if there is anybody reading this who believes Goldman pays substantial sums  to passing politicians as part of their good citizenship and staff education processes please call me .I know of a very interesting parcel  of mortgage derivatives and corporate bills—very low risk, very high return –that I can get you in on.


Hillary will win, but it will be painful and worry the stuff out of we liberal democrats.

Joe are you sure it’s too late?



Republicans   

   I have used my time and space this time on the last Dem Debate. But quickly handicapping the NH Republican Primary:

      Trump is deflating, the   plebs are getting tired of this circus. He will probably win in NH but not with anything like the vote expected as recently as last week. Canadian Cruz will also fade .Too clever by half and nasty; did we all hear the “New York Way” dog whistle for the boys in Iowa? Everybody will attack Rubio and he may begin to look shallow and programmed .But he may yet catch Cruz for second. If he does the Canadian is a goner sooner rather than later. The real question is will Bush,Kasich or Christie do well enough to get over 12% for a good fourth.If so it would keep that candidate alive and possible. The others will be under enormous pressure to quit and consolidate to stop Trump/Cruz. I really can’t see Bush or Christie getting enough traction. I think the Dems will get lucky and Kasich will go down but…but.  So…I forgot about Ben Carson but then so has almost everybody else. To summarise:
                
        Trump wins but not as well as he was doing in the polls two weeks ago. Fading.
        Canadian Cruz Squeezes second –or not. He has peaked.
        Rubio good third –or even 2nd—and claims victory .The rest claim he is an ingénue; and “all hat
                 and no trousers “[Texas for less there than meets the eye].

         Kasich best of the rest. But if less than 12% unlikely to build momentum to catch Rubio.  
        Christie screams all the way to the exit  damning Rubio for being glib AND successful.
        Bush, better luck next time; falls on sword for the party—now or after South Carolina.
             Did someone say Carly Fiorina? Me neither
            Oh yes then there was Ben Carson.
            Now well out on a limb for those who hope I humiliate myself.

              Bless you all     Irving