Well, well, well
Apparently a real interest in what I have to say about the Democratic
Debate of Thursday and some handicapping of tonight’s Republican show in New
Hampshire. Okay I’m game .sorry I have not been quicker but somewhere there is
a real life here. I have commitments to Lexulous games, online scrabble, which
takes time cos I hate to lose; two grandsons—and some daughters and a son
somewhere—household chores, and a bunch of premiership games to fit in .Spurs
now 2nd but no comment in case I put the mockers on them, west Ham
lost but then so did Man.City.Tomorrow can at least either Arsenal or Man.
Utd.blow it ---both!?!
No doubt none of you
care and just await my insights, pearls and prognostications.
First some housekeeping. Recipients have been
responding to me, which is much appreciated and I will reply to each
individually. Second, apparently the mailing list gets garbled and loses some addresses.
I have no idea why but fix it when I note it. So if you get this but did not
get the last, sorry. Also adding to the list when I get suggestions and from
emails that come across the screen .As some recipients are new I send the emails
as a string –this also keeps me on the spot for what I wrote or predicted .As
you can tell I am really getting into this. I am exploring how to turn this
into a blog link and will inform when achieved. Third ,several friends have
suggested that I broaden the topics away from the US elections and write about
some geo political stuff they have heard me expound on over lunches etc in the
last year or ten.
To that end I have
several in early preparation: Oil and the Saudi Game—money or survival?
Normalise with Iran—sooner
better than later
Turkey is key-- -pity Erdogan has gone loony
Goldman Sachs—“Doing God’s
Work”; too big to rail?
German
foreign policy from Sarajevo to Sudetenland
to Kosovo to Immigration,--subtle it
aint.
– Granddad
Fred must be turning in his grave.
So when next asked at the debate. Her defence : “What’s the issue?’—I paraphrase --everybody does it. Well if not everybody, then some very important people. " Really? Got a list of those receiving over $650,000 from a single company? “Well they were interested in what I had to say because I had been Secretary of State” . Does anyone think Madeleine Allbright got over half a million from Goldman Sachs; was she less interesting on foreign policy than Clinton? "But they [and Big Pharma and...] asked me to speak" . Is that a ‘they made me do it”?
Now to the
point:
Democratic Debate
First
let me agree with most of the pundits. This was an adult debate at last. The
DEMs looked so much more serious than what had gone before with the multiple
Republican Vaudeville Shows. Much of this no doubt because of the format –two
politicians speaking directly to each other and being prompted /questioned by
two less than preening journalists
. Also the absence of Trumpo and
an overfull stage suited for sound bites not debate.
Neither
Clinton nor Sanders did themselves much harm and in the parlance of the
sophisticated analysis familiar to the US Medya .It was probably a “draw”. That
is very good for Sanders. The punditry
is increasingly treating him as an equal
rather than a novelty. Not good if you support an ex Secretary of State,
Senator from a major State, ex active ‘partner’’ in the White House and
supported by almost every Democratic governor, Senator, elected official, fund
raiser and macher in the party. It was not supposed to be like this and the
“democratic establishment “is on the edge of panic. Well “courage mes amis” Sanders
will not be the nominee and it’s probably too late for Biden to find a way in.
Problem is the debate and its follow up, highlights her weaknesses as a
candidate.
Impressions. Sanders is every Jewish boy’s grandfather: He is from
the old country (Brooklyn), he has a strong sentimental and intellectual
attachment to the old country’s political faith .He is a good, decent and kind
man. He values education and argument beyond baubles and things, and wants
everyone to have a fair chance. What’s not to like? But he is not going to win
a general election and therefore not
the nomination. Nobody, least of all Bernie, can imagine him as the leader of
the World’s super power and we all know that’s the most important—but not the
only --part of the job.
Hilary can be
imagined as commander in chief; but the baggage, oh the baggage. Today I’ll
stick to the Goldman Sachs fees. Do they look sleazy? Yes. Inappropriate ? Yes.
Ill judged? Yes. Does the issue undermine her candidacy? You bet. And has she shown
a tin ear to the problem? Need we ask? Did she not prepare for this question?
Her first response/
explanation .I was there at 9/11 and we had to rebuild Manhattan. Was she
channeling Rudy Gulliani? That drew derision.
So when next asked at the debate. Her defence : “What’s the issue?’—I paraphrase --everybody does it. Well if not everybody, then some very important people. " Really? Got a list of those receiving over $650,000 from a single company? “Well they were interested in what I had to say because I had been Secretary of State” . Does anyone think Madeleine Allbright got over half a million from Goldman Sachs; was she less interesting on foreign policy than Clinton? "But they [and Big Pharma and...] asked me to speak" . Is that a ‘they made me do it”?
“When I go to speak to Goldman or other Wall Street players
I tell them like it is; they will not get a soft ride from me. I am coming
after their privileges and that carried interest stuff. “ Boy I bet that gets
them shaking, Blankfein is probably still in therapy.Hostage to fortune on those transcripts. “I needed the money”. So
do we all. ”I was very poor when we left the White House”-- not anymore.
“Can
anybody show me a single policy position that I changed because of speaking
fees? “Now that response is really an insult to our intelligence.
“These payments are transparent”. No plain brown envelopes here.
They don’t use Plain Brown in Lagos, Joburg, Brasilia, or Moscow either. Maybe
in Harare—wire transfers not working there. “But anyway I speak to lots of
groups.”Yeah? What did the Mine workers or the garment workers Union pay you to
speak? Oh that’s right you could not fit
them into your schedule.
"But everybody does it,
Reagan got $2 million from Japan, Bush One did it, even Bush 2 gets paid to speak
or go on boards. Boy that guy Bill Clinton did it in Spades—oops. And they all
get huge sinecures on Corporate Boards ,Kissinger, the Bushes ,Cheney,
Rubin,Geitner , Summers all linked to
the Carlyle Group,Blackstone,Goldman et
al. Everybody except jimmy Carter and we all know he is weird. It’s the
American way. " She did not actually say this last paragraph but that’s what we
all heard.
It’s been 3 years
since everybody promised to end the carried interest loophole. Everybody. Ain’t happened yet. I have lots of friends in
this business .Nobody quaking just yet. As to “corruption”, you never see a
transparent quid pro quo .When was the last time anyone read an article about a
Mining or Oil executive being indicted under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act?
Must be because there is no corruption in Guinea ,Angola, Kazkhstan etc. High powered pols,
bankers, business people and bureaucrats the world over are not that stupid. Influence peddling, crony capitalism and bribery is as rife in the US as
most anywhere else, the scandal is not what crimes are committed but what is
not a
crime.
Bernie has touched
that nerve. And Hilary has to find a way to diffuse the accusation .It will not
be easy. Maybe it’s just not possible to give a credible answer. And now that
the “transcripts” have become this seasons “Romney Tax Returns” there is more
embarrassment to come. That’s what is worrying the Democratic
establishment.There is an army of journalists, trouble makers and activists
looking to “follow the money”. And who believes that they will not come up with
real issues about donations to the Clinton Foundation?
Finally
–clap,clap,clap-if there is anybody reading this who believes Goldman pays
substantial sums to passing politicians
as part of their good citizenship and staff education processes please call me
.I know of a very interesting parcel of
mortgage derivatives and corporate bills—very low risk, very high return –that
I can get you in on.
Hillary will win, but
it will be painful and worry the stuff out of we liberal democrats.
Joe are you sure it’s too late?
Republicans
I have used my time and space this time on the last Dem
Debate. But quickly handicapping the NH Republican Primary:
Trump is deflating, the
plebs are getting tired of this circus. He will probably win in NH but
not with anything like the vote expected as recently as last week. Canadian
Cruz will also fade .Too clever by half and nasty; did we all hear the “New
York Way” dog whistle for the boys in Iowa? Everybody will attack Rubio and he
may begin to look shallow and programmed .But he may yet catch Cruz for second.
If he does the Canadian is a goner sooner rather than later. The real question
is will Bush,Kasich or Christie do well enough to get over 12% for a good fourth.If so it would keep that candidate alive and possible. The others
will be under enormous pressure to quit and consolidate to stop Trump/Cruz. I
really can’t see Bush or Christie getting enough traction. I think the Dems
will get lucky and Kasich will go down but…but.
So…I forgot about Ben Carson but then so has almost everybody else. To
summarise:
Trump
wins but not as well as he was doing in the polls two weeks ago. Fading.
Canadian
Cruz Squeezes second –or not. He has peaked.
Rubio good third –or even 2nd—and claims victory .The rest
claim he is an ingénue; and “all hat
and
no trousers “[Texas for less there than meets the eye].
Kasich best of the rest. But if less than 12% unlikely to build momentum
to catch Rubio.
Christie screams all the way to the
exit damning Rubio for being glib AND
successful.
Bush,
better luck next time; falls on sword for the party—now or after South
Carolina.
Did
someone say Carly Fiorina? Me neither
Oh yes
then there was Ben Carson.
Now well out on a limb for those who hope I humiliate myself.
Bless
you all Irving
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