Monday, February 29, 2016

THE TRUMP[F] KLAN

I return to the USA to see that nice Donald gentleman being pilloried by the Republican establishment for being too polite to the DUKE--DAVID that is.As far as the the GOP is concerned the poor man cannot win---or rather the problem is he keeps on winning.He has been criticised for being rude and brash.Now that he is polite to someone it's a problem.

Now we English know that you are supposed to be deferential to Dukes and welcome the Donald's embrace of such courtesy.We also revere the 10 commandments;and as we know Mr.Trump[f] is very big,very big on the bible.

Those bullies at the GOP are demanding that he transgresses the 5th of the 10. This comes ahead of thou shalt not murder
thou shalt not commit adultery
thou shalt not steal
thou shalt not bear false witness
thou shalt not covet
Still guessing? Its one of the affirmative ones :

Honour your Father and your Mother


The Trump(f) father bequeathed the Donald the family fortune earned from his Segregated Housing Empire.And in his youth was arrested for assault during a KKK riot in Queens.His first passion.

To disown the Grand Imperial Wizard would be to disown the Trump(f) Father(land). ---a bridge too far for a dutiful son.

That is unless the news cycle has overtaken this blog and he has caved.In which case The Donald will have to focus on the "thou shalt not murder" one.Too late for the rest I fear.

ps. thank goodness for Ivanka ,the Jewish Trump;she at least covers the first 4 commandments

Cab Driver Survey

I have been in London surveying cab driver opinion.

The traditional black cab drivers were easy to poll--they spoke English,like as what I did when I grew up.They feigned little interest in discussing British exit from the EU---"nothing much will change guvnor,and anyway Europe's falling apart with or without us".Pretty reasonable summary.

But there was no shortage of spontaneous views on The Donald.All negative- "you Yanks have gone bonkers" "Nasty bugger--but cracking Mrs---we thought all the East Europeans Girls were in London waiting table, cleaning houses and doing massages". These are genuine quotes.

The mini cab drivers were more circumspect. All spoke understandable English mostly with Slavic accents.Concerned about immigration and London house prices.It seems they think that drawbridge should be up now that they are on the inside and kosher.Most seem to have been in UK a long time and had the concerns and views one might expect from aspiring ,hard working family men making a life for their family.

The Uber drivers were very difficult to engage,Just arrived ,little English,no idea about London geography and totally focused on their Sat Navs . A lifeline --literally and metaphorically.Legal residents? Maybe Uber is manning the borders for that nice Mr.Cameron.

Anyway a blog is in the works on the nexus of immigration, London's population explosion,collapse in the building of social housing, soaring rents ,stratospheric house prices beyond the dream of local working families and new apartment blocks sold off plan in Hong Kong,Taiwan, Lagos and China [common denominator? none in the EU] .

Anyway there was a general concensus that Tottenham deserved to win the premiership.I do not believe that this view was influenced by interviewer bias.

.

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

THE MIGHTY TRUMP[f]O

Requests for comments on Britain Voting to leave EU ,will do but first:
THE MIGHTY TRUMP[f]O

Wins S.Carolina and now Nevada Caucuses with 45% of vote

Proudly won the " the support of the "poorly educated" and Latinos" --no doubt he got 100% of poorly educated Latinos who voted in the Republican Primary--all 4 of them.

Ahead by double digits in all next weeks states except Texas-where the population apparently believes that Canadian Ted is a paysanne.

No reason for Cruz or Rubio to drop out and Kacich not getting traction ;while he holds on for OHIO and the North & MIDWEST.

If you are not astonished you are asleep.
If you are not appalled--even as a cynical partisan democrat--you lack imagination.
If you claim to have seen this coming ,you are hallucinating.

Can he now be stopped? Not if Cruz & Rubio keep close in 2/3rd place and each dreams of being the TRUMPO alternative. And who says that if Rubio drops out that his vote would go disproportionately to Cruz ;and one could expect the Cruz vote goes to Trumpo more than to Rubio.

It looks as though that Clinton Electoral Magic---LUCK--may still be in play!

Bush gone;Kacich not getting the traction ;Rubio/Cruz staying close in the voting leading both to reasonably dream---while shedding each other's blood. 2 Cubans--really! She should do well and get momentum from the next clutch of Primaries mostly in the south.
Wonderful irony if Democratic Southern Primaries push her to the nomination before the votes in New York,California,Ohio and Michigan.That is :states with no chance of a Democratic win in the general election have disproportionate influence ahead of the major Democratic states .

Anyway Trump has to be the Republican Democrats want to face---beware what we wish for.

Hillaries Achilles Heel[s]

those darned emails
still dissembling about those Goldman Sachs transcripts
AND OH that Clinton Foundation Money Trail

but for now she has had a great week.

Saturday, February 20, 2016

TRUMP

I WAS GREETED BY THIS ALL OVER THE NEWSTANDS AT HEATHROW WHEN I ARRIVED ON A FAMILY VISIT.

EVERYBODY HERE RIVETED BY US ELECTION

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

NH Bad/ Mixed Result for Clinton ?

Bad/ Mixed Result for Clinton ?

Republican primary

	Vote	Pct.
Donald Trump	100,406	35.3%
John Kasich	44,909	15.8%
Ted Cruz	33,189	11.7%
Jeb Bush	31,310	11.0%
Marco Rubio	30,032	10.6%
Chris Christie	21,069	7.4%
Carly Fiorina	11,706	4.1%
Ben Carson	6,509	2.3%

				I got it wrong on Trump(f). I though his bubble would deflate after 2nd place in Iowa.But he came roaring back. With Canadian Cruz crashing Trump is the major non establishment candidate and presumptive nominee unless he BLOWS South Carolina.This is good for Hillary.

Got it right on Cruz.He peaked in Iowa ,narrow third here within 1% of both Bush & Rubio. He dropped to 11.7% after 28% in Iowa.Has to make major comeback in S.Carolina .He might,there are apparently lots of evangelicals there and Rubio may be mortally wounded.If not he slithers into oblivion ;maybe staying in enough primaries to drain evangelicals from Rubio.

Rubio was another BIG loser 23% in Iowa to <11 in NH.But worse he really did look CALLOW and Programmed at the same time.Christie did savage him in the debates.To the advantage of Bush and Kacich. Christie is GONE .Like Moriarty ,he went over the falls hugging Rubio
close but like Sherlock , Rubio may not be dead --yet.But Christie is actually dead."who wields the dagger rarely wears the crown ".

Bush has risen !--maybe the evangelicals will see the light.He beat Rubio.Shocked me.

Kacich did himself the most good 2% in Iowa to 16% in NH by far the biggest change.The pundits are still not giving him much chance "South Carolina,Nevada,the South not his ground blah blah.Lets Hope Not.Lets See .If they are wrong he beats Clinton in November.

There are 3 plausible "mainstream ' runners left . Kacich ,Bush & Rubio.If they can all stay close through April then maybe Trump wins.In any event they bleed each other and Trump wins.And that's good for Hilary.The Clinton luck still holds.The Republican pros really want a decisive result for one of the them in South Carolina,with the other two dropping out.Hope springs...Its not obvious that is likely.But oh the irony if its "dead man" Bush and then the establishment rallies round him to stop Trumpf [Ted Who?]. Bush wins and after all the Sturm und Drang its Bush vs Clinton !!
The gods have played worse tricks.

Democratic primary

	Vote	Pct.
Bernie Sanders	151,578	60.4%
Hillary Clinton	95,249	8.0%

No two ways about it a dreadful result for Clinton.Worse was the manner of the defeat.

Grumpy Bill,clueless Allbright and a desperate plea to the "sisterhood"emphasised the campaign's tin ear.Insulting the intelligence of young women will not get you what you want No not that.I have daughters and they have girl friends ,colleagues and classmates.If I know that they are way past "vote for a woman" because "she is a woman" then how come the geniuses in the Clinton campaign do not know.This is political malpractice.The scale of the defeat is stunning.

Clintonites, do not panic--yet.The luck holds .South Carolina next:large black Democratic electorate expected to go big for Hillary.Ironic that a state with zero chance of going democratic in November will have such influence on the democratic nominee.Of course the pundits and the Clinton campaign team which assumes that African Americans are an overwhelming lock for Hillary are the same savants who based their comeback in New Hampshire on gender solidarity.Hmm.

If Clinton does not win big in S.Carolina--then panic.

And if Bernie gets the nomination,bless him, how do you think he will do against Bush or Kasich or Van Trumf , after an October terrorist attack in a mall in Philadelphia.

Food for thought.

backup feb7 Pre NH Debate

Well, well, well

Apparently a real interest in what I have to say about the Democratic Debate of Thursday and some handicapping of tonight’s Republican show in New Hampshire. Okay I’m game .sorry I have not been quicker but somewhere there is a real life here. I have commitments to Lexulous games, online scrabble, which takes time cos I hate to lose; two grandsons—and some daughters and a son somewhere—household chores, and a bunch of premiership games to fit in .Spurs now 2^nd but no comment in case I put the mockers on them, west Ham lost but then so did Man.City.Tomorrow can at least either Arsenal or Man. United.blow it ---both!?!

No doubt none of you care and just await my insights, pearls and prognostications.

First some housekeeping. Recipients have been responding to me, which is much appreciated and I will reply to each individually. Second, apparently the mailing list gets garbled and loses some addresses. I have no idea why but fix it when I note it. So if you get this but did not get the last, sorry. Also adding to the list when I get suggestions and from emails that come across the screen .As some recipients are new I send the emails as a string –this also keeps me on the spot for what I wrote or predicted .As you can tell I am really getting into this. I am exploring how to turn this into a blog link and will inform when achieved. Third ,several friends have suggested that I broaden the topics away from the US elections and write about some geo political stuff they have heard me expound on over lunches etc in the last year or ten.

To that end I have several in early preparation:

Oil and the Saudi Game—money or survival?

Normalise with Iran—sooner better than later

Turkey is key-- -pity Erdogan has gone loony

Goldman Sachs—“Doing God’s Work”; too big to rail?

German foreign policy from Sarajevo to Sudetenland

to Kosovo to Immigration,--subtle it aint.

On a lighter note -The Jewish Trump (Ivanka} keeps kosher Granddad Fred must be

– turning in his grave.

Now to the point: Democratic Debate

First let me agree with most of the pundits. This was an adult debate at last. The DEMs looked so much more serious than what had gone before with the multiple Republican Vaudeville Shows. Much of this no doubt because of the format –two politicians speaking directly to each other and being prompted /questioned by two less than preening journalists . Also the absence of Trumpo and an overfull stage suited for sound bites not debate.

Neither Clinton nor Sanders did themselves much harm and in the parlance of the sophisticated analysis familiar to the US Medya .It was probably a “draw”. That is very good for Sanders. The punditry is increasingly treating him as an equal rather than a novelty. Not good if you support an ex Secretary of State, Senator from a major State, ex active ‘partner’’ in the White House and supported by almost every Democratic governor, Senator, elected official, fund raiser and macher in the party. It was not supposed to be like this and the “democratic establishment “is on the edge of panic. Well “courage mes amis” Sanders will not be the nominee and it’s probably too late for Biden to find a way in. Problem is the debate and its follow up, highlights her weaknesses as a candidate.

Impressions. Sanders is every Jewish boy’s grandfather: He is from the old country (Brooklyn), he has a strong sentimental and intellectual attachment to the old country’s political faith .He is a good, decent and kind man. He values education and argument beyond baubles and things, and wants everyone to have a fair chance. What’s not to like? But he is not going to win a general election and therefore not the nomination. Nobody, least of all Bernie, can imagine him as the leader of the World’s super power and we all know that’s the most important—but not the only --part of the job.

Hilary can be imagined as commander in chief; but the baggage, oh the baggage. Today I’ll stick to the Goldman Sachs fees. Do they look sleazy? Yes. Inappropriate ? Yes. Ill judged? Yes. Does the issue undermine her candidacy? You bet. And has she shown a tin ear to the problem? Need we ask? Did she not prepare for this question?

Her first response/ explanation .I was there at 9/11 and we had to rebuild Manhattan. Was she channeling Rudy Julliani? That drew derision.
So next when asked at the debate. Her defence: “What’s the issue?’—I paraphrase. Everybody does it. Well if not everybody, then some very important people. Really? Got a list of those receiving over $650,000 from a single company? “Well they were interested in what I had to say because I had been Secretary of State” .Does anyone think Madeline Allbright got over half a million from Goldman Sachs; was she less interesting on foreign policy than Clinton? But they [and Big Pharma and...] asked me to speak. Is that a ‘they made me do it”?

“When I go to speak to Goldman or other Wall Street players I tell them like it is; they will not get a soft ride from me. I am coming after their privileges and that carried interest stuff. “Boy I bet that gets them shaking, Blankfein is probably still in therapy. “I needed the money”. So do we all. ”I was very poor when we left the White House”-- not anymore. “Can anybody show me a single policy position that I changed because of speaking fees? “Now that response is really an insult to our intelligence.

“These payments are transparent”. No plain brown envelopes here. They don’t use Plain Brown in Lagos, Joburg, Brasilia, or Moscow either. Maybe in Harare—wire transfers not working there. “But anyway I speak to lots of groups.”Yeah? What did the Mine workers or the garment workers Union pay you to speak? Oh that’s right you could not fit them into your schedule.

But everybody does it, Reagan got $2 million from Japan, Bush 1 did it, even Bush 2 gets paid to speak or go on boards. Boy that guy Bill Clinton did it in Spades—oops. And they all get huge sinecures on Corporate Boards ,Kissinger, the Bushes ,Cheney, Rubin,Geitner , Summers all linked to the Carlyle Group,Blackstone,Goldman et al. Everybody except jimmy Carter and we all know he is weird. It’s the American way. She did not actually say this last paragraph but that’s what we all heard.

It’s been 3 years since everybody promised to end the carried interest loophole. Everybody. Ain’t happened yet. I have lots of friends in this business .Nobody quaking just yet. As to “corruption”, you never see a transparent quid pro quo .When was the last time anyone read an article about a Mining or Oil executive being indicted under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act? Must be because there is no corruption in Guinea etc. High powered pols, bankers, business people and bureaucrats the world over are not that stupid. But influence peddling, crony capitalism and bribery is as rife in the US as most anywhere else, the scandal is not what crimes are committed but what is not illegal.

Bernie has touched that nerve. And Hilary has to find a way to diffuse the accusation .It will not be easy. Maybe it’s just not possible to give a credible answer. And now that the “transcripts” have become this seasons “Romney Tax Returns” there is more embarrassment to come. That’s what is worrying the Democratic eatablishment.There is an army of journalists, trouble makers and activists looking to “follow the money”. And who believes that they will not come up with real issues about donations to the Clinton Foundation?

Finally –clap,clap,clap-if there is anybody reading this who believes Goldman pays substantial sums to passing politicians as part of their good citizenship and staff education processes please call me .I know of a very interesting parcel of mortgage derivatives and corporate bills—very low risk, very high return –that I can get you in on.

Hillary will win, but it will be painful and worry the stuff out of we liberal democrats.

Joe are you sure it’s too late?

Republicans

I have used my time and space this time on the last Dem Debate. But quickly handicapping the NH Republican Primary:

Trump is deflating, the plebs are getting tired of this circus. He will probably win in NH but not with anything like the vote expected as recently as last week. Cruz will also fade .Too clever by half and nasty; did we all hear the “New York Way” dog whistle for the boys in Iowa? Everybody will attack Rubio and he may begin to look shallow and programmed .But he may yet catch Cruz for second. If he does Cruz is a goner sooner rather than later. The real question is will Bush, Kasich or Christie do well enough to get over 12% for a good fourth.

If so it would keep that candidate alive and possible. The others will be under enormous pressure to quit and consolidate to stop Trump/Cruz. I really can’t see Bush or Christie getting enough traction. I think the Dems will get lucky and Kasich will go down but…but. So…I forgot about Ben Carson but then so has almost everybody else. To summarise:

Trump wins but not as well as he was doing in the polls two weeks ago. Fading.

Cruz Squeezes second –or not. He has peaked.

Rubio good third –or even 2^nd—and claims victory .The rest claim he is an ingénue; and all hat

and no trousers [Texas for less there than meets the eye]

Kasich best of the rest. But if less than 12% unlikely to build momentum to catch Rubio.

Christie screams all the way to the exit damning Rubio for being glib AND successful.

Bush, better luck next time; falls on sword for the party—now or after South Carolina.

Did someone say Carly Fiorina? Me neither

Oh yes then there was Ben Carson.

Now well out on a limb for those who hope I humiliate myself.

Bless you all Irving

backup feb6 The Iowa Democratic Debate

Well, well, well

No doubt none of you care and just await my insights, pearls and prognostications.

To that end I have several in early preparation: Oil and the Saudi Game—money or survival?

Normalise with Iran—sooner better than later

Turkey is key-- -pity Erdogan has gone loony

Goldman Sachs—“Doing God’s Work”; too big to rail?

German foreign policy from Sarajevo to Sudetenland

to Kosovo to Immigration,--subtle it aint.

On a lighter note -The Jewish Trump (Ivanka} keeps kosher

– Granddad Fred must be turning in his grave.

Now to the point: Democratic Debate

Her first response/ explanation .I was there at 9/11 and we had to rebuild Manhattan. Was she channeling Rudy Gulliani? That drew derision.

So when next asked at the debate. Her defence : “What’s the issue?’—I paraphrase --everybody does it. Well if not everybody, then some very important people. " Really? Got a list of those receiving over $650,000 from a single company? “Well they were interested in what I had to say because I had been Secretary of State” . Does anyone think Madeleine Allbright got over half a million from Goldman Sachs; was she less interesting on foreign policy than Clinton? "But they [and Big Pharma and...] asked me to speak" . Is that a ‘they made me do it”?

“When I go to speak to Goldman or other Wall Street players I tell them like it is; they will not get a soft ride from me. I am coming after their privileges and that carried interest stuff. “ Boy I bet that gets them shaking, Blankfein is probably still in therapy.Hostage to fortune on those transcripts. “I needed the money”. So do we all. ”I was very poor when we left the White House”-- not anymore.

“Can anybody show me a single policy position that I changed because of speaking fees? “Now that response is really an insult to our intelligence.

"But everybody does it, Reagan got $2 million from Japan, Bush One did it, even Bush 2 gets paid to speak or go on boards. Boy that guy Bill Clinton did it in Spades—oops. And they all get huge sinecures on Corporate Boards ,Kissinger, the Bushes ,Cheney, Rubin,Geitner , Summers all linked to the Carlyle Group,Blackstone,Goldman et al. Everybody except jimmy Carter and we all know he is weird. It’s the American way. " She did not actually say this last paragraph but that’s what we all heard.

It’s been 3 years since everybody promised to end the carried interest loophole. Everybody. Ain’t happened yet. I have lots of friends in this business .Nobody quaking just yet. As to “corruption”, you never see a transparent quid pro quo .When was the last time anyone read an article about a Mining or Oil executive being indicted under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act? Must be because there is no corruption in Guinea ,Angola, Kazkhstan etc. High powered pols, bankers, business people and bureaucrats the world over are not that stupid. Influence peddling, crony capitalism and bribery is as rife in the US as most anywhere else, the scandal is not what crimes are committed but what is not a

crime.

Bernie has touched that nerve. And Hilary has to find a way to diffuse the accusation .It will not be easy. Maybe it’s just not possible to give a credible answer. And now that the “transcripts” have become this seasons “Romney Tax Returns” there is more embarrassment to come. That’s what is worrying the Democratic establishment.There is an army of journalists, trouble makers and activists looking to “follow the money”. And who believes that they will not come up with real issues about donations to the Clinton Foundation?

Hillary will win, but it will be painful and worry the stuff out of we liberal democrats.

Joe are you sure it’s too late?

Republicans

I have used my time and space this time on the last Dem Debate. But quickly handicapping the NH Republican Primary:

Trump is deflating, the plebs are getting tired of this circus. He will probably win in NH but not with anything like the vote expected as recently as last week. Canadian Cruz will also fade .Too clever by half and nasty; did we all hear the “New York Way” dog whistle for the boys in Iowa? Everybody will attack Rubio and he may begin to look shallow and programmed .But he may yet catch Cruz for second. If he does the Canadian is a goner sooner rather than later. The real question is will Bush,Kasich or Christie do well enough to get over 12% for a good fourth.If so it would keep that candidate alive and possible. The others will be under enormous pressure to quit and consolidate to stop Trump/Cruz. I really can’t see Bush or Christie getting enough traction. I think the Dems will get lucky and Kasich will go down but…but. So…I forgot about Ben Carson but then so has almost everybody else. To summarise:

Trump wins but not as well as he was doing in the polls two weeks ago. Fading.

Canadian Cruz Squeezes second –or not. He has peaked.

Rubio good third –or even 2^nd—and claims victory .The rest claim he is an ingénue; and “all hat

and no trousers “[Texas for less there than meets the eye].

Kasich best of the rest. But if less than 12% unlikely to build momentum to catch Rubio.

Christie screams all the way to the exit damning Rubio for being glib AND successful.

Bush, better luck next time; falls on sword for the party—now or after South Carolina.

Did someone say Carly Fiorina? Me neither

Oh yes then there was Ben Carson.

Now well out on a limb for those who hope I humiliate myself.

Bless you all Irving

backup feb2 IOWA the Morning After

IOWA the Morning After

As requested an quick response to last night.

I am now into this. and really touched by messages from friends I have not seen in almost 20 years.

With email addresses added from recipient suggestions the list is up to 70+ and growing .Who knew?

Anyway

The BIG winner is Marco Rubio ,despite major blitzes against him on TV from Bush.

Assiduous readers may note he barely got a mention in my previous email !!

Another 1% and he would have pushed Trump(ed) into 3rd place .If he gets 2nd or good third in NH

ahead of Kasich, Bush & Christie he becomes the most likely nominee. I can hear the sighs

of relief from Capitol hill and the RNC way out here in Great Falls .

Trump is the big loser despite coming a respectable 2nd in the Evangelical dominated Republican part of Iowa .His aura of invincibility has gone, had Rubio caught him the bubble may have burst. In any case he needs a big rebound in NH and for Rubio to be a weak third or worse. Otherwise it becomes a Trump vs Rubio race to the convention. Cruze just peaked . He really is uber nasty and narcissistic even by Republican standards.

Democrats

Bernie the overwhelming moral victor . He will win big in NH and do well in Nevada but he ain't gonna make it all the way . In the heart he is an inzera but in my head I know he's dead --or will be. A confident democratic primary electorate will not in the end nominate a 74 year old ,New York ,Jewish , Socialist, Independent from .Vermont. But the Clintonistas are really panicked. They need to calm down,she wins in the end---PACE JOE BIDEN--what are the mechanics for a very late entry?

HILLARY is a winner / loser. She won Iowa on 6 coin tosses and statistical error; but Bernie is probably smart enough not to demand a recount and be happy to split the delegates and take the moral victory into NH. Amongst democrats she lost some credibility and some affection last night ,but it won't matter. Iowa is behind her now and so will be NH soon.Her real loss was Trump being outshone by Rubio . If Trump fades--he will-- then media attention switches to Rubio and even more to Hillary's baggage. She had begun to dream of Trump or Cruze as their nominee; and would win that handily.Rubio would be a different proposition. More on his problems anon.

Non-USA readers who are used to contests between parties with leaders ,may not realise just how much Presidential elections here are more akin to battles between CHAMPIONS. Despite the Republican record in congress and their grotesque primary circus ,in the end many Americans will just 'reset" for the general election. The media will cover it like a "title fight', big money PACS will run endless ads on the Clinton baggage and many Americans---by no means all--have the political cognizance of gnats; Not all, not even a majority but enough.

"The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter."

Winston Churchill

and he wasn't talking about Americans--a much faster lot ,would only take 2 minutes.

But then again :

“Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.”

― Winston S. Churchill

Its very rare that I quote this man but Americans revere him as some kind of political Icon--when in Rome

speak with you all again soon

-----Original Message-----

backup feb1 IOWA CAUCUSES

IOWA

I have been inundated with suggestions about my last missive:

Start a blog ,its easier to communicate and send on ; do not start a blog ,nobody cares what old farts think.

Daughter threatens to show me how to create a blog ,but refuses to provide legal advice to keep me out of the libel courts--pro bono or otherwise

some added email addresses; some requests to remove email address.

leave the labour party ; save the labour party--if only .I await the call at Great Falls Deux Eglises .

stop talking to the TV ; panic if the TV speaks back

get serious ; lighten up

abandon West Ham ;support the Arse nal "may my hand wither from my arm if I forget thee OH White Heart Lane".

Dump Trump --sorry nothing to do with me

write a note on Iowa before Mondays vote ["so we can all see you don't have a clue"] ;

Where is Iowa ? [I do have a far flung readership -from London to Lagos to LA to Lausanne and Buenos Aires] I do love alliteration .

Anyway , I have plenty of contradictory input so I can claim that whatever I do is in response to the demands of my perspicacious ,erudite and powerful readers.

Given the time sensitivity I must devote this note to the "IOWA CAUCUSES".

The Publicans

For those of you within or outside the USA who cannot understand why the votes of about 100,000 conservative zealots may determine the future of the free world , I offer no solace. For the Muslims amongst you I mean no offence in pointing out that in Iowa they really do eat pig with everything rather than the other way around. They are the first to kick off and there is no pander too gross for those seeking to lead the home of the brave. And very effective for the farmers of Iowa it is.

In addition to the scandal of ethanol production and mandates ,the PORK in pork is fabulous .And as Ted Cruz has discovered ,any hint of modifying the largesse has to be swiftly denied. All this and more for the "family farm".

But into this farming, fairyland of family good fortune has stumbled the Donald. His appeal to the evangelical heart of the Republican faithful has been a wonder to behold--probably "two Corinthians" predicted this--if not, perhaps Nostradamus.

It is of course true that not all evangelicals are bigots any more than all bigots are evangelicals. But it seems that both Trump and Cruz have found enough to make a them the front runners. I guess they missed that bit about "suffer the children' and just assumed Jesus would object to anchor babies.Donald: that is Matthew 19:14 not Second Corinthians.

For those not following every second of the Trump ascendancy. He gave a pandering speech last week to the student body at Liberty University--the Evangelical Institution of Higher Learning in Virginia---as an ex Yeshiva Bocher [rabbinical college-I know ,one of many skeletons in my closet] I am in no position to make oxymoron jokes. The president of the university Jerry Falwell ibn Jerry Falwell,the founder of the dynasty, endorsed his candidacy . Presumably on the basis of the meek inheriting the earth---no sorry Donald that's not 2 Corinthians either. Trump rolled up with his family bible and praised the wisdom of 2 Corinthians oblivious to the fact that to Christians and the literate its quoted as "2nd Corinthians". He confirmed he was "very religious" in the same way he had assured a meeting of vets that he was "very big, very big on the military--no onbigger'.He confirmed that he is big on Jesus. If I was superstitious I would be crossing myself at this point.

The conventional consensus is now that Trump will win narrowly in Iowa ,by a landslide in New Hampshire and going away in evangelical South Carolina . If correct there is no stopping him short of a sex/money/opium scandal or the discovery of his secret birth certificate from Haiti. As someone who shared the conventional wisdom that his candidacy was a sideshow I would not suggest ANYONE bet with the conventional wisdom. This is a man with almost no feel for-or interest in -policy, foreign affairs or civilized discussion; who has insulted women, Mexicans, immigrants ,the physically cursed, a war hero, and on and on ;

yet he is winning .His puts down of "low energy" Bush ,Canadian Cruz and sleepy Carson have been brilliant. But was that all that was needed? The republicans are reaping their whirlwind of negation, dog whistle racism, tax pandering and economic obstructionism..

So is there an alternative outcome? My own fear is not Rubio [the last hope of the R establishment and the alternative of the aforesaid conventional wisdom], nor Christie ,another bully boy who should be finished after fourth place in New Hampshire. let alone Bushie .But Kasich is a real danger in the general election. He probably needs to finish a third in NH and hold on till Ohio in March ;if after NH Bush and Christie have the grace to drop out and get behind Kasich ---then watch this space. But its not likely. This is America ! Politicians are as narcissistic as anywhere else and there is no tradition of sacrificing ambition for the good of the party/the cause/the "people whence I came "/my spouse or whatever. So the chance of him emerging -son of a postman, from a rustbelt ,must win state, with a record of sane government, and a normal personality with a lousy haircut , is low. So Hilary is likely to be blessed with the Donald .If its Kacich she has a real problem.

The Dems

Its now 1 am and trying to finish before tomorrows vote begins. Going to sleep to muse on the future of Sandersism as US democratic socialism will be forever known. Having grown up with a Yiddish Bundist father the rhythms are so comfortably familiar; but alas doomed ,at least this cycle. But let us not fail to recognise our blessings and histories lessons. The world is so much a better place than in my parents' youth.; and progress will continue from so much higher base than the youth of that generation. Good night.

Good morning ,I will get this out by 1 pm if it kills me. The conventional wisdom is Clinton in Iowa ,Sanders in New Hampshire then Clinton in South Carolina. And that means she will go on to get the nomination . Clinton vs Trump ,New York senator vs NY developer---will the Yankees win the series? No one [including me] believes a 74 year old,Jewish, self professed Socialist from Vermont [nee New York !]will be the Democratic nominee, let alone president .But...but....

The dem pros ,elected officials at all levels and liberal Wall Streeters [I know but they hedge their bets] are really nervous.

Sanders does touch the progressives erogenous zones and many of his policy positions --eg single payer health care, break up the too big to "fail or jail" banks, drug price control, more progressive taxation-- are mainstream in Europe ,Canada and elsewhere and only seen as "radical" here.

( footnote : I will write a short note on "socialized medicine" and education soon ---just as a taster :what % of health care in USA is already "socialized"? Over 90% of secondary and elementary education is state controlled, funded and mandated.Tthat's more than the UK even though parochial schools are state funded --they are not in the USA----I digress)

Why the mainstream Democratic angst? Its the Clinton baggage--both of them--Monica, travelgate, speaking fees, emails ,cronyism and on. We have no idea the crap that will be uncovered around the Clinton Foundation--but it will be substantial.

Given the state of the Republicans ,huge war chest and a weak primary field she should be leading a parade. But, but....

In the last analysis she will win anyway. She has the greatest Clinton gift of all---blessed with luck and the quality of her enemies. Could the Cintonistas in their wildest dreams --with or w/o medical marijuana--have anticipated their primary opposition as a decent unelectable 74 year old "socialist" and Martin Who? ;this to be followed by the Donald or Ted Cruze. A birther and a Canadian, who invented these guys? Joe (Biden) say it ain't so --you are younger than Bernie, more progressive than Hilary and so much more decent than the Donald. I cannot overstate to my vast readership how many democratic supports I meet who pine for Joe.

One last observation before I sign off. I live in the Northern Virginia/DC region -liberal bastion. Support for a woman president taken for granted .Yet almost all of the women I have grilled---especially the millennials--do not give a hoot whether the Democratic candidate is female or not. They are "past that" ,they don't care whether he/she is Catholic, white ,black,Hispanic ,Jewish or anything else. They care that he/she is progressive, grounded and can beat "them".

Is it my imagination or has Clinton more or less removed or at least down played the "first woman President" shtick?

got to send this now or will be accused of hiding my light

best to all ;enjoy tonight whatever your time zone.

For those in the southern hemisphere 11 pm/mid night here should be good barbecuing time--11pm in Buenos Aires, normal dinner time!, mid afternoon in the antipodes, and early breakfast in Capetown ,London or Lagos.

regards

PS: apparently a blizzard is forecast after the polls close in iowa and commercial flights will be grounded. .Maybe the Donald can give the rest a ride to New Hampshire. A 757 but Not Airforce 1 --yet.

PS: apparently a blizzard is forecast after the polls close in iowa and commercial flights will be grounded. .Maybe the Donald can give the rest a ride to New Hampshire. A 757 but Not

backup Jan26 THE FIRST US & UK jan 31

Just to note at the I have learned to send emails w/o all addresses being in the copy column. This was suggested to prevent internecine warfare amongst the factions within my mailing list--2 economists 3 opinions. Or is that Jews? How many opinions do two Jewish economists have? Anyway I have expanded the list by adding in groups of addresses so if you cannot figure out why you are receiving this drivel, or getting it twice--forgive me.

I am sitting at my computer in the midst of a "once in a century Washington snow blizzard"; its my third since 1997,so I should be good till 23rd century. Two feet of snow stops everything and deadens all external sound. Give's me a state of peace if not grace. Today I have watched Spurs beat Crystal Palace ,West Ham draw with Man. City and look forward to Arsenal dropping 2/3 points tomorrow. As long as have electric power I can watch 5/6 premiership games + the NFL divisional finals .Even read a book! Actually got a biography of Tottenham Hotspurs and a history of Ottoman /German diplomacy on the go. Spurs doing better than the Turks but they[the Turks] had a long run--pity[for them] they lost Arabia and the Gulf just before all that oil was discovered and it was nicked[developed] by the British in Persia and then Saudi; and by the French in a place called Iraq which theretofore had not existed.

But I digress from my intent to respond to the enormous demand from my vast international, intelligent and perspicacious readership; both of whom have insisted that I break my vow of silence and regale them with my thoughts on the two Bernards and President Trump. I had promised to give Jeremy Bernard Corbyn ,six months grace before commenting but he and the party of my birthright may not last long enough for the brilliance of my comments to illuminate the discourse ;and President Trump may be all but inaugurated before we gather ourselves to stop the madness.

In the USA ,

can it be that we will have an all new York race. Between

     1] a narcissistic German ,whose father was a supporter of the KKK and a member of the John Birch Society--the KKK sans hoods--and whose grandfather ,Adolph [ he was born before Hitler but the name association is too bizarre not to notice] , made his fortune "renting" properties for Brothels in the West. The father was investigated by the Senate and the Justice department for racial bias in renting apartments in New York and for war profiteering. I know, I know the sins of the father should not burden the child but....! All this is now leavened by adding the intellectual genius and generosity of spirit brought in by Sarah Palin.



    And 2] an old fashioned Bundist Yiddle whose father was a tailor. My dad would have known an Inzera [one of us] and a comrade and would have loved him. Just to confirm Bernie is nothing like Bernard[Corbyn].He has a significant track record as a Mayor, Congressman and Senator .He is an intelligent man who has significantly influenced policy from health care to banking and consistently opposed American adventurism while improving benefits for veterans. Bernie fits very neatly into the soft left of the party we grew up in/on. Strong on unions, free health care and education, civil/personal rights and never an apologist for Putin or , in the day ,the Soviet Union.

.

   So perhaps an unelectable Jewish Socialist vs an unelectable German Fascist. "Only in America".

ps. as you know I do not use terms like "fascist" lightly but a racist, wanting to bring in Industrialists to run the government and economy, wants to unleash the military on all and sundry enemies , proposes to expel Mexicans w/o due process ,plays fast and loose with personal finances and whose bully boys screen everybody going into his meetings and throw out any hecklers who sneaked through ,seems to fit the bill.

Hilary's surrogates are already[desperately] using "Socialist" as an "unelectable" slur.

Of course, as my father and I would sadly agree Bernie is unelectable in the USA system of the electoral college. My kind of unelectable progressive. Regrettably Hillary while progressive on children and women's issues, has a very conservative record on economics, banking and taxation; and like Bill has been very "careful' on social issues. Joe Biden ,where are you when we need you? Still despite everything, Hillary offers a genuine and credible alternative to the Republicans

In the UK:

You have of course read my dyspeptic views of Jeremy during the leadership election. The confusion and nastiness of his office and inner circle therefore come as no surprise.Jeremy is not as nice as he likes to appear but nor is he a true nasty like Ken ,McDonnell et al.; but his total inability to control any of it means he approves or is totally incompetent.

but the greater disaster for the party is his idiotic incompetence in putting over reasonable arguments for plausible radical policies. Or effectively giving any substantive voice in opposition to a reactionary, incompetent and DIVIDED government.

The Trident example is beyond parody. There are perfectly reasonable arguments for opposing the third leg of an independent British nuclear deterrent-- effectiveness, necessity, cost, diversion from other military priorities or from non military priorities.

But opposing in principle and then suggesting it be built as a make work program but not arm it , is both idiotic and immoral. Then getting embroiled in a debate on whether Labour policy could be changed before a parliamentary vote and then perhaps by a poll of party members takes us to a level of sophomoric imbecility even I could not have imagined.

Of course these sideshows of internecine warfare and idiotic policy pronouncements and processes , distract from the real need for changes within the party. In reality ,I fear that the Corbyn distraction hides a deeper malady. A party whose "main stream" leadership can produce a report exonerating the Miliband leadership; which has lost the Scottish heartland ; has no coherent view on ethnic divisions or faith schools; no clear commitment to a Keynesian economic policy; no unity on Brexit or not ,and on what democratic and economic changes are needed in the EU ; or a practical strategy for housing ;and on ; has
no credible claim on being a government beyond "we are not the Tories".

Nor can we take solace in the common sense and practicality of the Trades Unions.Without a sensible trades union movement there is no Labour party ,no matter what the odd Blairite may dream. I have found writing this Labour pary bit rather a downer --sorry.

Still can west Ham make the top four ,Arsenal finish second and could Chelsea be relegated ? We live in hope on all fronts.

   ps This Macri guy in Argentina seems sane, Evita must be turning in her grave.

King Cyclops