I have been inundated with suggestions about my last missive:
Start a blog ,its easier to communicate and send on ; do not start a blog ,nobody cares what old farts think.
Daughter threatens to show me how to create a blog ,but refuses to provide legal advice to keep me out of the libel courts--pro bono or otherwise
some added email addresses; some requests to remove email address.
leave the labour party ; save the labour party--if only .I await the call at Great Falls Deux Eglises .
stop talking to the TV ; panic if the TV speaks back
get serious ; lighten up
abandon West Ham ;support the Arse nal "may my hand wither from my arm if I forget thee OH White Heart Lane".
Dump Trump --sorry nothing to do with me
write a note on Iowa before Mondays vote ["so we can all see you don't have a clue"] ;
Where is Iowa ? [I do have a far flung readership -from London to Lagos to LA to Lausanne and Buenos Aires] I do love alliteration .
.
Anyway , I have plenty of contradictory input so I can claim that whatever I do is in response to the demands of my perspicacious ,erudite and powerful readers.
Given the time sensitivity I must devote this note to the "IOWA CAUCUSES".
The Publicans
For those of you within or outside the USA who cannot understand why the votes of about 100,000 conservative zealots may determine the future of the free world , I offer no solace. For the Muslims amongst you I mean no offence in pointing out that in Iowa they really do eat pig with everything rather than the other way around. They are the first to kick off and there is no pander too gross for those seeking to lead the home of the brave. And very effective for the farmers of Iowa it is.
In addition to the scandal of ethanol production and mandates ,the PORK in pork is fabulous .And as Ted Cruz has discovered ,any hint of modifying the largesse has to be swiftly denied. All this and more for the "family farm".
But into this farming, fairyland of family good fortune has stumbled the Donald. His appeal to the evangelical heart of the Republican faithful has been a wonder to behold--probably "two Corinthians" predicted this--if not, perhaps Nostradamus.
It is of course true that not all evangelicals are bigots any more than all bigots are evangelicals. But it seems that both Trump and Cruz have found enough to make a them the front runners. I guess they missed that bit about "suffer the children' and just assumed Jesus would object to anchor babies.Donald: that is Matthew 19:14 not Second Corinthians.
For those not following every second of the Trump ascendancy. He gave a pandering speech last week to the student body at Liberty University--the Evangelical Institution of Higher Learning in Virginia---as an ex Yeshiva Bocher [rabbinical college-I know ,one of many skeletons in my closet] I am in no position to make oxymoron jokes. The president of the university Jerry Falwell ibn Jerry Falwell,the founder of the dynasty, endorsed his candidacy . Presumably on the basis of the meek inheriting the earth---no sorry Donald that's not 2 Corinthians either. Trump rolled up with his family bible and praised the wisdom of 2 Corinthians oblivious to the fact that to Christians and the literate its quoted as "2nd Corinthians". He confirmed he was "very religious" in the same way he had assured a meeting of vets that he was "very big, very big on the military--no onbigger'.He confirmed that he is big on Jesus. If I was superstitious I would be crossing myself at this point.
The conventional consensus is now that Trump will win narrowly in Iowa ,by a landslide in New Hampshire and going away in evangelical South Carolina . If correct there is no stopping him short of a sex/money/opium scandal or the discovery of his secret birth certificate from Haiti. As someone who shared the conventional wisdom that his candidacy was a sideshow I would not suggest ANYONE bet with the conventional wisdom. This is a man with almost no feel for-or interest in -policy, foreign affairs or civilized discussion; who has insulted women, Mexicans, immigrants ,the physically cursed, a war hero, and on and on ;
yet he is winning .His puts down of "low energy" Bush ,Canadian Cruz and sleepy Carson have been brilliant. But was that all that was needed? The republicans are reaping their whirlwind of negation, dog whistle racism, tax pandering and economic obstructionism..
So is there an alternative outcome? My own fear is not Rubio [the last hope of the R establishment and the alternative of the aforesaid conventional wisdom], nor Christie ,another bully boy who should be finished after fourth place in New Hampshire. let alone Bushie .But Kasich is a real danger in the general election. He probably needs to finish a third in NH and hold on till Ohio in March ;if after NH Bush and Christie have the grace to drop out and get behind Kasich ---then watch this space. But its not likely. This is America ! Politicians are as narcissistic as anywhere else and there is no tradition of sacrificing ambition for the good of the party/the cause/the "people whence I came "/my spouse or whatever. So the chance of him emerging -son of a postman, from a rustbelt ,must win state, with a record of sane government, and a normal personality with a lousy haircut , is low. So Hilary is likely to be blessed with the Donald .If its Kacich she has a real problem.
The Dems
Its now 1 am and trying to finish before tomorrows vote begins. Going to sleep to muse on the future of Sandersism as US democratic socialism will be forever known. Having grown up with a Yiddish Bundist father the rhythms are so comfortably familiar; but alas doomed ,at least this cycle. But let us not fail to recognise our blessings and histories lessons. The world is so much a better place than in my parents' youth.; and progress will continue from so much higher base than the youth of that generation. Good night.
Good morning ,I will get this out by 1 pm if it kills me. The conventional wisdom is Clinton in Iowa ,Sanders in New Hampshire then Clinton in South Carolina. And that means she will go on to get the nomination . Clinton vs Trump ,New York senator vs NY developer---will the Yankees win the series? No one [including me] believes a 74 year old,Jewish, self professed Socialist from Vermont [nee New York !]will be the Democratic nominee, let alone president .But...but....
The dem pros ,elected officials at all levels and liberal Wall Streeters [I know but they hedge their bets] are really nervous.
Sanders does touch the progressives erogenous zones and many of his policy positions --eg single payer health care, break up the too big to "fail or jail" banks, drug price control, more progressive taxation-- are mainstream in Europe ,Canada and elsewhere and only seen as "radical" here.
( footnote : I will write a short note on "socialized medicine" and education soon ---just as a taster :what % of health care in USA is already "socialized"? Over 90% of secondary and elementary education is state controlled, funded and mandated.Tthat's more than the UK even though parochial schools are state funded --they are not in the USA----I digress)
Why the mainstream Democratic angst? Its the Clinton baggage--both of them--Monica, travelgate, speaking fees, emails ,cronyism and on. We have no idea the crap that will be uncovered around the Clinton Foundation--but it will be substantial.
Given the state of the Republicans ,huge war chest and a weak primary field she should be leading a parade. But, but....
In the last analysis she will win anyway. She has the greatest Clinton gift of all---blessed with luck and the quality of her enemies. Could the Cintonistas in their wildest dreams --with or w/o medical marijuana--have anticipated their primary opposition as a decent unelectable 74 year old "socialist" and Martin Who? ;this to be followed by the Donald or Ted Cruze. A birther and a Canadian, who invented these guys? Joe (Biden) say it ain't so --you are younger than Bernie, more progressive than Hilary and so much more decent than the Donald. I cannot overstate to my vast readership how many democratic supports I meet who pine for Joe.
One last observation before I sign off. I live in the Northern Virginia/DC region -liberal bastion. Support for a woman president taken for granted .Yet almost all of the women I have grilled---especially the millennials--do not give a hoot whether the Democratic candidate is female or not. They are "past that" ,they don't care whether he/she is Catholic, white ,black,Hispanic ,Jewish or anything else. They care that he/she is progressive, grounded and can beat "them".
Is it my imagination or has Clinton more or less removed or at least down played the "first woman President" shtick?
got to send this now or will be accused of hiding my light
best to all ;enjoy tonight whatever your time zone.
For those in the southern hemisphere 11 pm/mid night here should be good barbecuing time--11pm in Buenos Aires, normal dinner time!, mid afternoon in the antipodes, and early breakfast in Capetown ,London or Lagos.
regards
PS: apparently a blizzard is forecast after the polls close in iowa and commercial flights will be grounded. .Maybe the Donald can give the rest a ride to New Hampshire. A 757 but Not Airforce 1 --yet.
PS: apparently a blizzard is forecast after the polls close in iowa and commercial flights will be grounded. .Maybe the Donald can give the rest a ride to New Hampshire. A 757 but Not
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