IOWA the Morning After

As requested an quick response to last night.

I am now into this. and really touched by messages from friends I have not seen in almost 20 years.

With email addresses added from recipient suggestions the list is up to 70+ and growing .Who knew?

Anyway

The BIG winner is Marco Rubio ,despite major blitzes against him on TV from Bush.

Assiduous readers may note he barely got a mention in my previous email !!

Another 1% and he would have pushed Trump(ed) into 3rd place .If he gets 2nd or good third in NH

ahead of Kasich, Bush & Christie he becomes the most likely nominee. I can hear the sighs

of relief from Capitol hill and the RNC way out here in Great Falls .

Trump is the big loser despite coming a respectable 2nd in the Evangelical dominated Republican part of Iowa .His aura of invincibility has gone, had Rubio caught him the bubble may have burst. In any case he needs a big rebound in NH and for Rubio to be a weak third or worse. Otherwise it becomes a Trump vs Rubio race to the convention. Cruze just peaked . He really is uber nasty and narcissistic even by Republican standards.

Democrats

Bernie the overwhelming moral victor . He will win big in NH and do well in Nevada but he ain't gonna make it all the way . In the heart he is an inzera but in my head I know he's dead --or will be. A confident democratic primary electorate will not in the end nominate a 74 year old ,New York ,Jewish , Socialist, Independent from .Vermont. But the Clintonistas are really panicked. They need to calm down,she wins in the end---PACE JOE BIDEN--what are the mechanics for a very late entry?

HILLARY is a winner / loser. She won Iowa on 6 coin tosses and statistical error; but Bernie is probably smart enough not to demand a recount and be happy to split the delegates and take the moral victory into NH. Amongst democrats she lost some credibility and some affection last night ,but it won't matter. Iowa is behind her now and so will be NH soon.Her real loss was Trump being outshone by Rubio . If Trump fades--he will-- then media attention switches to Rubio and even more to Hillary's baggage. She had begun to dream of Trump or Cruze as their nominee; and would win that handily.Rubio would be a different proposition. More on his problems anon.

Non-USA readers who are used to contests between parties with leaders ,may not realise just how much Presidential elections here are more akin to battles between CHAMPIONS. Despite the Republican record in congress and their grotesque primary circus ,in the end many Americans will just 'reset" for the general election. The media will cover it like a "title fight', big money PACS will run endless ads on the Clinton baggage and many Americans---by no means all--have the political cognizance of gnats; Not all, not even a majority but enough.

"The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter."

Winston Churchill

and he wasn't talking about Americans--a much faster lot ,would only take 2 minutes.

But then again :