I received the following email from a Clinton supporting friend and thought I would use it to launch my last blog before NH.
"I think your kasich prediction is heart not head. Very interested in Rubio performance. Is the country shocked (do they care?) that a Clinton took money to speak? Really?!"
The concerns I have about Kasich is not from head nor heart but from my most important political organ---the gut. You misunderstand. I do not want Kasich to do well. I FEAR he will. I would be delighted if Trum[f] ,Canadian Cruz or Crass Christie would get the nomination --blowhard ,snake or bully take your choice. All beatable by any Democrat. But Kasich is a different proposition he is the most electable of this bunch.
If you believe ,as I do , that about 40% of the USA VOTING electorate has the memory and political savvy of mosquitos you should worry too . IF Kasich becomes their nominee then the media will "reset" and the election will be covered as a brand new Gladiatorial contest .Not all ,but plenty of voters will get amnesia and forget the primaries and just how terrible the Republicans have been in Congress. Even many of those who do remember will give Kasich a pass--"he wasn't there", "its not his fault" ,"he has been a decent governor" etc. The continuing discomfort ,now no longer beneath the surface, about Hill's credibility ,"baggage" ,Goldman Sachs and Bill back in the White House will give Kasich a real chance .Maybe even the Callow Cuban might give her a credible race : "Youth and Vigour" vs "Yesterdays Gal" ; it worked for Kennedy vs Nixon ;it worked for Obama vs McCain; even Lincoln vs Douglas --I made that up!
I still think she will get the nomination and will be a better President than anyone on offer from the GOP.I would vote for her --without any illusions. BUT all my political organs ,head, heart and gut ; and my antenna are telling me to worry about a Kasich upset showing in NH. He is not going to win but if he comes third or even a good 4th [better than12%],and can stay viable until Ohio and the rust belt primaries.....
OK. Many of you have been following the polls and sending me comments accordingly. Well polls are polls .They predicted Trum[f] winning in Iowa, and on the Democratic side a comfortable Hillary cushion--yes they did , look it up. But we still look to them for wisdom. I bet at least half of you could not wait to see if Rubio"s "gaff" cost him 5-8% in the polls. You know who you are ! I guess there are too many numbers people amongst my friends and colleagues: those grad schools have a lot to answer for. So be it .Let me look past whatever the latest "trackers " are saying and describe the outcome that would be BAD for the Democrats
Trum[f] wins but continues to fade significantly< 24% ,Canadian Crus Crashes to 3rd or even 4th. Rubio overcomes the "Gaff" and gets 2nd or third> 15%.Both Bush and Christie get < 6% ,
and Kasich SUPRISES with 3rd and > 12%. Oops forgot Carson and Carly again--they are on the ballot. Such an outcome gives Kacich momentum, further deflated the Trump bubble--deflate more likely than burst---and keeps Rubio viable.Crus has already peaked, Bush and Christie can soldier on but will face enormous pressure from the GOP money to drop out and back Kacich sometime after South Carolina and Nevada in late February.The establishment will want the it down to Trumpf Crus, Rubio and Kasich for a slew of big states in March. Better yet for them Trumpf, Kacich and a
dying Canadian.
Good for the Dems ;
a surging Trump[f] , a crash for Kacich < 7% and everyone from the 2 Cubans through to Jeb and Chris [the Bridge] Christie with around 9-13% ,keeping hope alive.
I have not commented on the Democratic Primary. Berny wins big ,the Clintons panic and "reorganize" and pray for Black and Hispanic turnout in the South and West .Apart from the coast these are places the Democrats will then lose in November anyway. Strange process . Any one who tuned in through part of today will have witnessed the Clinton campaign panicky missteps. Bill ,feigning upset that some supporters of Berny made some snide sexist tweets. And Madelein Albright's " there is a special place in hell for women who do not support women" .Does that include Sarah Palin, Michelle Bachman Phyllis Schafley ,Carly Fiorina and Margaret Thatcher?
"Patriotism is the last refuge of the Scoundrel"--Samuel Johnson 1775.
He would have found this GOP bunch in the Colonies most confirmative.
but " is now Feminism the last resort of Bill Clinton" --Kingcyclops .
apparently a friend of mine has a thesaurus in which "Bil Cinton" is a synonym for "scoundrel ".
And yes the Goldman Speaking fees do matter.$2 million in 18 months from Wall Street and Big Pharma plus major donations to the Foundation. That ain't bubkas. What if the investigative press and et al have only just scratched the surface?
Joe,Joe-- where are you?
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