This is the one topic on which I am consistently requested
to blog .So I guess I can no longer hide behind my insouciance and avoid
declaring a stand. In return my interlocutors are invited to respond in the
comment section at the end of the blog.
The vote is next Thursday
Looking back over past blogs I discover that I have written twice on the
subject.
Once on 23 March, berating General Petraeus for claiming that our cooperation with
EU countries over terrorism and intelligence transfer would collapse. An
argument as silly as Herr Junker calling for an EU member’s only military
alliance .I have re posted that blog tonight.
And then last week pointing out that the referendum was not constitutionally
binding and could be legitimately rejected by Parliament .The resultant chaos
would or would not be as damaging as proceeding to negotiate the
exit--depending on your point of view.
It that March blog I thought I was on firmly on the fence:
"There
is less to all this than meets the eye."
Would it really make that much difference one way or
t'other?
That was an economic prognosis based on the following premises:
- The
UK/EU would negotiate trade and investment arrangements much as the
current ones
- In the
long run the UK economic performance would depend on its own fundamentals
and UK government policy
- That
the most important Economic determinant would be staying out of the
Euro-with or without Brexit
- Short
term disruption would not be very significant
On this view the trade off is between some short term
economic disruption and the UK "regaining" its parliamentary sovereignty.
In the British tradition: the dictatorship of an elected parliament rather than
that of an unelected Bureaucracy in Brussels.
On re-reading my March blog I note that I was in fact
falling off the fence towards a more activist position.The last three months has confirmed that the argument
has long descended from the "economic merits" to a plebiscite on
immigration.
Scaremongering, xenophobic, saloon bar bores, little
Englanders waiving 14 million "Turkish Visas" on one side;
Scaremongering, pompous placemen, panjandrum and wise men
predicting economic Armageddon on the other.
One side led by a Tory Old Etonian opportunist
and clown
The other led by a Tory Old Etonian Grandee of little
political vision or competence
Never mind,the clown is being bolstered by Farage and
the Grandee by Corbyn!
So Cyclops where do you stand?
My instincts are for free trade and for free(dom) from the EU machine.
There is no common foreign policy, no common border policy
and no common fiscal policy. Except at times of crisis [maybe] there will not
be and so be it.Actually,we are in times of crisis and there is very little coherent "common" policy.
I am no less “European" for preferring national parliamentary
sovereignty over diktat by democratically deficient institutions.
The economic arguments for staying in revolve around the
costs of pulling out and the benefits of a more independent economic policy.
1. There is the danger of the self fulfilling prophesy.Capital will panic if the poll goes negative. Investment will freeze up,
exchange rate chaos, production cut back. Unlikely but can never over estimate
the ability of capital to shoot itself in the foot.
2. The"statesmen"in the EU may extract revenge
and drag out the exit negotiations, heightening economic uncertainty, reducing
investment and lengthening stagnation.Such "revenge" politics" makes little
sense but the best the UK can expect is the NORWAY SOLUTION.Anything else will
encourage the breakup of the EU.
[Norway is not a member of the EU but in order to participate in open trade and
investment it has to allow free migration of EU nationals,adhere to EU
economic regulations and contribute to the EU budget for social and economic transfers.If that is the best the UK can expect what is the point of Brexit ?]
3. The short term dislocation may be very severe for the UK,
the EU and the World Economy.The medium term interregnum,negotiations and
legal adjustments could last 3-5 years.Not withstanding GeorgeOsborne's panicked scare stories and
silly threats of tax increases and spending cuts,the actual economic costs and uncertainties for most
households will be real.
4. The gains ephemeral,difficult to quantify and in the future.
5.As a result of not being part of the EURO the UK already has control of its economic policy.Just ask the winners and losers under Chancellor George II.
In the long run we are dead.
The arguments above while pragmatic are in good part “fear
of the unknown”. Foolish to ignore them but not good for the self esteem.Never the less the reaction of markets,sterling and Britain's partners to the polls showing a small Brexit lead do not bode well.
The case that persuades me is of a different nature
"Europe and the World needs UK to Stay"
- The
world may not be on the brink of catastrophe but it’s not that far off
either.
- Much
of the danger centres on EU Europe and its environs.
- Refugees,
migrants, border chaos, terrorism, the rise of the far right.
- Greek austerity,
economic stagnation.
- The Ukraine, the Balkans and the Mid East.
- Uncertainty over US commitment and leadership.
- Liberal,cooperative,progressive values are under threat.
- Not a
little of all this exacerbated by the"statesmen"of the EU.
Cameron called for an EU Referendum to buy peace and time
within his Tory Party before the last UK election.{see Peel's 1846 Corn Laws repeal and the rise of the Whigs}.He got a referendum on IMMIGRATION.
- A UK vote to exit, would lead to calls by the far right for immigration
referenda in Holland, France, Italy, Demmark and even Germany. It could unleash
centrifugal forces tearing Europe apart and with that global chaos.
- Could we count on the "statesmen" of Europe to act
together in the common interest? Recent events cannot give confidence.
- Would the panic of Capital bring on a recession?
- Would Putin resist the temptation to cause mischief in the
"Old Empire"? Would President TRUMP (f) do a deal---just
kidding.
We should worry less about the damage exit will do to the UK
and more on the consequences for Europe and the World.
All sound a bit dramatic? Maybe, but is a small(ish)
probability of a catastrophic outcome worth it?
Despite the PR man Cameron, and the nonexistent
alternative on the left, the UK provides real weight and balance for the future
of Europe.Recent history makes it hard to have confidence in the British
elites but we have a real tradition and self image of stability in adversity.
We have BOTTOM and Europe needs that.
Perhaps for the UK c'est notre devoir to stay in.
Stay and reform rather than leave and pretend.
Do not risk being the catalyst for a tragic break up.
Have the political will for a decent,pragmatic immigration policy.
Let's not hunker down behind illusory sovereign vanities.
REMAIN
