Brexit would only make world more dangerous, says David Petraeus in UK Sunday Telegraph.
I have been off line for a couple of weeks --taxes,flu and because I cannot compete with the Republican campaign circus.
But after many requests, finally I am addressing BREXIT
To foreigners: that's the UK referendum on leaving the European Union.
I could not bring myself to do this before because:
Every sod ,prognosticator and pundit in Christendom is already spewing acres of news print on the subject.
The level of discourse is already dreadful.
The economic difference between staying in or leaving will probably be negligible.
The dignitaries, panjandrum and wise men trying to scare the Brits into staying are execrable.
As are the placemen,pompous spokesmen and self important officials paid for by the taxpayers of the EU.
Unfortunately, those arguing for leaving are too much made up of xenophobes and saloon bar bores full of myriad stories and examples of the evils of the Brussels Bureaucracy--but no vision .
There is less to all this than meets the eye.
BUT this afternoon I heard on PBS--that's the Yanks BBC--that
General Petraeus had put in his tuppence worth with a column in the organ of the Tory Government--the Sunday Telegraph.
While this should get the good General consulting fees and the odd board seat from some multinationals ,it will persuade not a single voter in the referendum.
The General's advisers might educate him on :
1.Mr. Petraeus is not in the pantheon of those American Military Men revered in the UK.He is not Washington or Eisenhower.
2.The British have never been big on self promoting ,media Generals.They prefer their top brass to serve anonymously and not openly involve themselves in politics..
3. The British military and ,therefore the broader population,were not as impressed by the "Surge" as the US Media.
4.They may not be as easily unnerved by vague intimations of failing "security cooperation" if we leave the EU as his usual audiences .
5. They do not relish being patronised by foreigners.
The argument that if we leave the EU then security cooperation between the UK and the rest will diminish is silly.It is as puerile as the similar arguments on the economy,borders,aviation,safety regulations and on.
The degree and manner of cooperation will depend on each government's perception of threat levels,competence and self interest---just like now.The British are not awaiting EU directives to create,bolster or reform its security procedures ;or the intensity of cooperation with others --within the EU or not.
Whether or not the UK remains in the EU is irrelevant to these security issues. As on much else.
So Cyclops where do you stand on Brexit?
All my instincts are for free trade and for free(dom) from the EU machine.There is no common foreign policy,no common border policy and no common fiscal policy .Nor will there be .So in or out will not matter much on the big issues and is irksome on the minor ones.Like most Brits I favour a common,undistorted market free of preferences for favoured groups or industries.We still do not even have that yet.The rest is not just a pipe dream but not useful or practical.I am no less"European" for preferring national parliamentary sovereignty over dictat by democratically deficient institutions.
If the "stay in" campaign keeps the scare story nonsense going then it will drive me, along with a bunch of other "don't care" or "indifferent" voters into the hands of the outs.
But there are 3 arguments for staying in revolving around the costs of pulling out.
1. There is the danger of the self fulfilling prophesy.Capital will panic if the polls go negative.Investment will freeze up,exchange rate chaos,production cut back.Unlikely but can never over estimate the ability of capital to shoot itself in the foot.
2. The"statesmen"in the EU will extract revenge and drag out the exit negotiations and its cost to the UK,heightening economic uncertainty and therefore investment stagnation.Just follow the nonsense spouted by Jean Claude Junker ,the vain ,venal and incompetent President of the European Commission--the most senior official in the EU system.His pronouncements alone could drive millions to the "out" vote.He is the man selected by the "statesmen" of Europe to make sure that nobody of substance got the job at the risk to their influence --solidarite as practiced at the highest levels of Europe.Look at his recent insights on security after the attack in Brussels.
Such "revenge" politics" makes no sense but this is "Europe".
The two previous arguments while pragmatic are essentially "fear of the unknown".Foolish to ignore them but not good for the self esteem.
3. The case that actually gives pause for thought is that "Europe and the world needs us to stay in"
The world is not on the brink of catastrophe but its not that far off either.Much of the danger centres on EU Europe and its environs.Refugees,Migrants,border chaos,terrorism,the rise of the far right,Greek austerity,economic stagnation,the Ukraine,the Balkans and the Mid East.Not a little of this brought on or exacerbated by the "statesmen"of the EU.It is not beyond contemplation that a UK vote to exit,would unleash centrifugal forces tearing Europe apart and with that global chaos.Could we count on the "statesmen" of Europe to act together in the common interest?Recent events cannot give confidence.Would the panic of Capital bring on a recession which overwhelms ? Would Putin resist the temptation to cause mischief in the "old Empire"?Would President Trum(f) do a deal---just kidding.All sound a bit dramatic? Maybe, but a small(ish) probability of a catastrophic outcome?
It may be that we should not worry about the damage exit will do to the UK but rather the unintended consequences for Europe and the world.
Despite the PR man Cameron,and the non existent alternative on the left,it may be that the UK provides real weight to the future of Europe.Recent history makes it hard to have confidence in the British elites but the British have a real tradition and self image of stability in adversity.They have BOTTOM and Europe needs that.
Perhaps for the UK c'est notre devoir to stay in.Stay and reform rather than leave and risk being the catalyst for a tragic break up.
But after many requests, finally I am addressing BREXIT
To foreigners: that's the UK referendum on leaving the European Union.
I could not bring myself to do this before because:
Every sod ,prognosticator and pundit in Christendom is already spewing acres of news print on the subject.
The level of discourse is already dreadful.
The economic difference between staying in or leaving will probably be negligible.
The dignitaries, panjandrum and wise men trying to scare the Brits into staying are execrable.
As are the placemen,pompous spokesmen and self important officials paid for by the taxpayers of the EU.
Unfortunately, those arguing for leaving are too much made up of xenophobes and saloon bar bores full of myriad stories and examples of the evils of the Brussels Bureaucracy--but no vision .
There is less to all this than meets the eye.
BUT this afternoon I heard on PBS--that's the Yanks BBC--that
General Petraeus had put in his tuppence worth with a column in the organ of the Tory Government--the Sunday Telegraph.
While this should get the good General consulting fees and the odd board seat from some multinationals ,it will persuade not a single voter in the referendum.
The General's advisers might educate him on :
1.Mr. Petraeus is not in the pantheon of those American Military Men revered in the UK.He is not Washington or Eisenhower.
2.The British have never been big on self promoting ,media Generals.They prefer their top brass to serve anonymously and not openly involve themselves in politics..
3. The British military and ,therefore the broader population,were not as impressed by the "Surge" as the US Media.
4.They may not be as easily unnerved by vague intimations of failing "security cooperation" if we leave the EU as his usual audiences .
5. They do not relish being patronised by foreigners.
The argument that if we leave the EU then security cooperation between the UK and the rest will diminish is silly.It is as puerile as the similar arguments on the economy,borders,aviation,safety regulations and on.
The degree and manner of cooperation will depend on each government's perception of threat levels,competence and self interest---just like now.The British are not awaiting EU directives to create,bolster or reform its security procedures ;or the intensity of cooperation with others --within the EU or not.
Whether or not the UK remains in the EU is irrelevant to these security issues. As on much else.
So Cyclops where do you stand on Brexit?
All my instincts are for free trade and for free(dom) from the EU machine.There is no common foreign policy,no common border policy and no common fiscal policy .Nor will there be .So in or out will not matter much on the big issues and is irksome on the minor ones.Like most Brits I favour a common,undistorted market free of preferences for favoured groups or industries.We still do not even have that yet.The rest is not just a pipe dream but not useful or practical.I am no less"European" for preferring national parliamentary sovereignty over dictat by democratically deficient institutions.
If the "stay in" campaign keeps the scare story nonsense going then it will drive me, along with a bunch of other "don't care" or "indifferent" voters into the hands of the outs.
But there are 3 arguments for staying in revolving around the costs of pulling out.
1. There is the danger of the self fulfilling prophesy.Capital will panic if the polls go negative.Investment will freeze up,exchange rate chaos,production cut back.Unlikely but can never over estimate the ability of capital to shoot itself in the foot.
2. The"statesmen"in the EU will extract revenge and drag out the exit negotiations and its cost to the UK,heightening economic uncertainty and therefore investment stagnation.Just follow the nonsense spouted by Jean Claude Junker ,the vain ,venal and incompetent President of the European Commission--the most senior official in the EU system.His pronouncements alone could drive millions to the "out" vote.He is the man selected by the "statesmen" of Europe to make sure that nobody of substance got the job at the risk to their influence --solidarite as practiced at the highest levels of Europe.Look at his recent insights on security after the attack in Brussels.
Such "revenge" politics" makes no sense but this is "Europe".
The two previous arguments while pragmatic are essentially "fear of the unknown".Foolish to ignore them but not good for the self esteem.
3. The case that actually gives pause for thought is that "Europe and the world needs us to stay in"
The world is not on the brink of catastrophe but its not that far off either.Much of the danger centres on EU Europe and its environs.Refugees,Migrants,border chaos,terrorism,the rise of the far right,Greek austerity,economic stagnation,the Ukraine,the Balkans and the Mid East.Not a little of this brought on or exacerbated by the "statesmen"of the EU.It is not beyond contemplation that a UK vote to exit,would unleash centrifugal forces tearing Europe apart and with that global chaos.Could we count on the "statesmen" of Europe to act together in the common interest?Recent events cannot give confidence.Would the panic of Capital bring on a recession which overwhelms ? Would Putin resist the temptation to cause mischief in the "old Empire"?Would President Trum(f) do a deal---just kidding.All sound a bit dramatic? Maybe, but a small(ish) probability of a catastrophic outcome?
It may be that we should not worry about the damage exit will do to the UK but rather the unintended consequences for Europe and the world.
Despite the PR man Cameron,and the non existent alternative on the left,it may be that the UK provides real weight to the future of Europe.Recent history makes it hard to have confidence in the British elites but the British have a real tradition and self image of stability in adversity.They have BOTTOM and Europe needs that.
Perhaps for the UK c'est notre devoir to stay in.Stay and reform rather than leave and risk being the catalyst for a tragic break up.
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